Forum Archive Index - February 2000

[Graham Watt <gwatt@xtra.co.nz>]

Watt can I say!!
I have tracked FFS seriously for over 3 years.
I purchased last July. Hedged in August. Hedged in September.
I did my research and decided that FFS was going to lead the export recovery.
I was wrong then but now I see it recovering at long last.
The history:
10 year steady fall in stock price from $3.20. (Must recover one day)
June 96 recovery = 25% (in 7 weeks) $1.80 to $2.40
Last low Sept. 98 = 40c
Since then 4 recovering fluctuations of 48%, 33%, 25%, 24% (All within 12
months)
Nothing in the last 12 months till today. 5.77%
The way I see it
DFM picked it 15/11/99 at 70c (Play of the week)
Excessive discount to net tangible asset backing.
Increase in Asian demand for logs.
Beneficiary of export recovery.
Overseas investors will be in because of upturn in NZSE
ASX has turned towards a down trend.
DOW doesn't show bottom of current down trend yet.
I see a similar shape of graph to that of 1998-99 with continuing 25%
fluctuations to a recovery next Aug. of around $1.20

Hope so!!

Regards Graham









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