Forum Archive Index - January 2000

[Phil Williams <philw@hyperactive.co.nz>]

> In my opinion, the only difference between betting on a rugby game and
> investing in tech stocks, is the people who bet know more about rugby
> than the people buying tech stocks know about the underlying companies
> they are buying into.

I'm VERY glad you qualified that with the following statement..!

> Sure, there are exceptions to this rule, and I note that many advocates of 
>these stocks in this forum run/are involved with companies in the industry, 
>and presumably, have above average knowledge of the merits or otherwise of a 
>technology.

Lets get some prevailing points clear:
1 - Tech stocks have been returning gains in the hundreds of percent.
2 - The situation in the US is actually very stable. Thanks to good fiscal 
mngmnt by the Fed. They haven't freaked, neither has the market. Fretting about 
'87 is the reason the NZSE is still at 2100

The thing that really bugs me is that identifying good tech investments returns 
no more in the medium term than buying into the latest "crossover" without no 
business plan.
I mean, who the hell is buying SPE?
I'll be contentious and say - it's a con. The company doesn't even have a WEB 
SITE, and they're specialising in "business to business IT"...?

 Other firms like E-Phone fall in the middle... they have a plan but it's not 
great, with large amounts of competition and technology factors working against 
them... ie public access internet will decrease from it's (already small) share 
of the web
market when wireless access direct to your Nokia hits town...

But both of these firms have seen percentage share gains at or above the level 
of the IT/tech/telco firms who DO have something to offer... like the much 
hyped ITC, RNS, ADV, and NGL.

So I hope the first quarter 2000 will see people taking a look at which of 
these firms have the plan and the management expertise to go the distance, and 
backing them...

Phil Williams

Animation/Media Design
Hyperactive New Media
Wellington, NZ
+64 8019550

(Disclosure: hold ITC, and wish I'd taken my own advice and bought RNS)



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