TrustPower predicts energy shortage

By NZPA

Tuesday 18th March 2003

The prospect of a power shortage is very real, TrustPower spokesman Graeme Purches says.

He was commenting today on recent statements by Dunedin hydrologist David Stewart, who said it was "absurd" to predict a winter power shortage so early in the year.

Mr Stewart said three weeks' rain could restore the South Island hydro lakes to their normal level, as had happened last year after early warnings.

He speculated the Government was "softening up" the public to be receptive to Project Aqua, Meridian Energy's hydro generation plans for the lower Waitaki River.

But Mr Purches said all New Zealanders needed to start saving electricity.

Power usage was increasing at a rate of about 7 percent a year, although TrustPower, a major electricity retailer based in Tauranga, believed it was nearer 10 percent.

The hydro storage situation was "not flash" and gas reserves were running out, he said.

Contrary to common belief, the South Island was saved from black-outs during the 2001 power shortage by gas-fired electricity being sent from the North Island.

For a period of about six weeks, the Cook Strait cable was "flat out with power going from north to south", Mr Purches said.

The whole Waitaki Lakes storage system only contained enough water to generate six weeks' electricity, he said.

"Our view of the world is that the South Island needs Project Aqua. The South Island is rapidly reaching the point where the South Island needs more generation."

The demand for power in the south was increasing because of growth in the Nelson/Marlborough and Southern Lakes areas, as conversions from extensive farming to intensive dairying, Mr Purches said.

Demand was rapidly outstripping supply, and New Zealanders needed to think carefully about their electricity usage, he said.

"We have demonstrated we can save power.

"It's a bit early to say there's a crisis, but the signs are not looking good."

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