Migration rises to five-year high as fewer kiwis jump ship

Wednesday 21st October 2009

New Zealand’s annual net migration posted the fastest growth since 2004, reflecting a decline in kiwis heading overseas, especially to Australia and underpinning confidence the domestic economy will recover from its slump.

Permanent and long-term arrivals rose 1% to 87,200 in the year through September, exceeding the 70,200 departures for a net gain of 17,000, the highest since the same period of 2004, according to Statistics New Zealand. Net migration rose from 15,642 in the 12 months ended August 31.

“The steady pace over the past few months is consistent with our expectation that the annual inflow will peak around 22,000 early next year,” said Jane Turner, economist at ASB.

“The rise in net migration continues to come from a low number of departures,” she said. “The decision for fewer New Zealanders to head offshore reflects the impact of the global financial crisis with fewer job opportunities available in Australian and the UK.”

Growth in net migration will help underpin the economic recovery, stoking demand for housing and consumer goods. Economists are betting Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard will raise interest rates as soon as March to counter the potential inflation effects of an economy picking up steam.

Permanent arrivals exceeded departures by 1,800 in September, seasonally adjusted, up from a net gain of 1,600 gain in August. In the latest year, there was a net outflow to Australia of 23,100, down from an outflow of 33,900 in the 12 months through September 2008.

The outflow to Australia, New Zealand’s biggest trading partner and largest source of tourists, has declined from a record 35,400 in December 2008.

Tourists, or short-term arrivals, rose 3.8% in September from August, seasonally adjusted.

Businesswire.co.nz

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