NZ dollar little changed, may gain on dairy auction expected to record stronger prices

Tuesday 6th September 2016

The New Zealand dollar was little changed and may gain after tonight's GlobalDairyTrade auction, which the futures market is indicating will mark the fourth straight gain in the price of whole milk powder.

The kiwi traded at 73.16 US cents as at 5pm in Wellington, from 73.35 US cents late yesterday. The trade-weighted index was at 77.77, down from as high as 78.06 late yesterday, the highest since May last year.

Prices are expected to rise tonight for skim milk powder, butter, anhydrous milk fat and whole milk powder, according to activity in the NZX Dairy Derivatives market. A gain of about 10 percent is anticipated for whole milk powder, the biggest product by volume that Fonterra Cooperative Group sells on the GDT platform. Gains of that order would push the price above last October's high of US$2,824 a tonne and would be the highest since early 2015.

Imre Speizer, a senior market strategist at Westpac Banking Corp, said the kiwi dollar has been testing highs of 73.50 US cents "and tonight's dairy auction may be the catalyst" to push the currency above that level.

The kiwi traded at 95.92 Australian cents, down from 96.47 cents late yesterday, having declined against its trans-Tasman counterpart ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's review of interest rates. Governor Glenn Stevens kept the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent as expected and there was little reaction in the currency market to the statement, where he reiterated that the stance of monetary policy was "consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time".

The kiwi didn't move much after government figures showed wholesale trade rose a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent in the second quarter and after state-owned valuer, Quotable Value posted data showing the average value of a New Zealand home rose 15 percent in August from the year earlier to $612,527. The average home value in Auckland topped $1 million for the first time.

The kiwi dollar was little changed at 75.82 yen from 75.79 yen and slipped to 4.8878 yuan from 4.8959 yuan. It was little changed at 65.65 euro cents from 65.63 cents and dropped to 54.94 British pence from 55.05 pence.

New Zealand's two-year swap rate was unchanged at 2 percent and 10-year swaps rose 1 basis point to 2.44 percent.

BusinessDesk.co.nz

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