NZ dollar hovers at 30-month low as greenback surges

Thursday 4th October 2018

The New Zealand dollar is hovering around a 30-month low and could drop further if US jobs data surprises to the upside overnight Friday.

The kiwi traded at 64.97 US cents at 5pm versus 65.31 US cents at 8am in Wellington and 65.73 cents yesterday. It fell on stronger than expected data in the US overnight and is now at its lowest since mid-March 2016.

The trade-weighted index declined to 71.11 from 71.62.

The greenback got a solid lift when the ISM non-manufacturing survey beat expectations in hitting a 21-year high. A strong ADP private payrolls report also raised expectations for non-farm payrolls figures at the end of the week. Economists are expecting non-farm employment to increase by around 180,000 jobs in September. The ADP report adds to the upside risk.

"It is principally a dollar story... the kiwi is just a spin-off on the back of that," said Ross Weston, head of trading for Kiwibank.

Weston said the kiwi had already been under some pressure after a weak commodity price index yesterday and concerns that an El Nino weather system - which can bring drought to some regions - is growing more likely.

"It just started adding up and overnight to be absolutely thumped by the US dollar," he said.

New Zealand commodity prices fell for a fourth month in September, ANZ said yesterday. Five of the six broad categories were weaker, with the overall index down 3 percent during the past year.

Weston said there will likely be more downside for the kiwi if US jobs data overnight Friday also comes out stronger than expected. That will only add to the greenback's allure.

The kiwi traded at 56.58 euro cents from 56.77 cents yesterday and slipped to 50.20 British pence from 50.59 pence yesterday.

The kiwi traded at 91.59 Australian cents from 91.62 cents yesterday and dropped to 4.4601 Chinese yuan from 4.5150 yuan. It traded at 74.18 yen from 74.73 yen yesterday.

New Zealand's two-year swap rate was unchanged at 2 percent, while the 10-year swap rose 4 basis points to 2.88 percent.

(BusinessDesk)

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