NZ dollar weakens ahead of 3Q inflation on speculation interest rates to stay on hold

Thursday 23rd October 2014

The New Zealand dollar slipped ahead of a report on third quarter inflation which is expected to show prices rose at a slower pace than the Reserve Bank predicted, signalling interest rates are likely to remain at current levels for longer.

The kiwi fell to 79.38 US cents at 8am in Wellington, from 79.76 cents at 5pm yesterday. The trade-weighted index declined to 77.20 from 77.42 yesterday.

New Zealand consumer prices probably rose 0.5 percent in the three months through September, lagging the Reserve Bank's forecast for a 0.7 percent gain. Inflation is the last piece of data the Reserve Bank will take into account before its review of the official cash rate on Oct. 30, following gross domestic product and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research quarterly survey of business confidence.

"If the market is correct, then all three will have come out lower than the Reserve Bank's assumptions in September so that therefore leads to interest rates lower for longer and a bit more downward pressure on the kiwi," said Peter Cavanaugh, senior advisor at Bancorp Treasury Services. "If it comes out at 0.5 percent or lower then it's going to endorse the market's positioning of 90-day rates tracking below the Reserve Bank's assumptions, which means that the next OCR rise won't be until late 2015 if at all that year."

Should inflation print higher than expected, it may give the kiwi a lift, said Bancorp's Cavanaugh.

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler is scheduled to speak to Bank for International Settlements on cross-border financial linkages today, while Toby Fiennes, the central bank's head of prudential supervision, is speaking on managing system-wide risk.

Later today, the focus will be on the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI report.

The New Zealand dollar slipped to 90.39 Australian cents from 90.69 cents yesterday, edged up to 62.77 euro cents from 62.66 cents, weakened to 85.10 yen from 85.26 yen and was unchanged at 49.45 British pence

BusinessDesk.co.nz

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