Forum Archive Index - May 2004

[Harley <tomhow@paradise.net>]

Hi Snoopy,
 
>Withe the benefit of my great skill and foresight 
>I will now give you five sure fire 'winners' for the coming year.

>1/  A term deposit in Westpac ban.
>2/ A term deposit in ANZ bank.
>3/ A term deposit in the BNZ
>4/ A term deposit in the Taranaki Savings Bank

>and now for the real wildcard

>5/ A term deposit in Kiwibank!

Not a bad option, cashed up and waiting for the US to drop, The 
Presidential election maybe the catalyst. Nothing wrong with 
compound interest

>'m not so sure.    Alan Greenspan seems very determined to give the 
>US market a soft landing and not all US profit results are bad.  I am 
>sure sharechat's US correspondent, the other 'Allan' will pull me up if I 
>have got that wrong.  Of course if the US market falls but the US 
>currency strengthens at the same time it might not matter to NZ 
>investors. 

The US is borrowing massive amounts, it's currency will fall when overseas 
investors pull the plug and start selling. It's sharemarket is way 
overvalued.

>I can't really argue with any of that except the 'in theory' bit of the gains 
>you lost out on with Contact, Trustpower and Ports of Auckland.   
>Sadly, for you, the gains in these companies after you sold out were 
>real :

Only on paper, The gain isn't made until you sell. Agreed I missed out on 
dividends. However I always think of Telecom - $10 plus, AMP  $25 plus,
Opportunities still come along,  and as I said no one ever lost by taking a
profit. I still have doubts about Contact and Trustpower. 
Craig Norgate has revealed a $1.3m accounting move to increase WRI's
half year profit.  It's these hidden balance sheet manoeuvers which  
make you wary, especially of overseas dominated companies although WRI is not 
in that category.

Harley  


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