Forum Archive Index - May 2004

[Harley <tomhow@paradise.net>]

Hi Snoopy,

This is an interesting topic, my guess is Mcdunk is right in that most expect 
to make money and  lots of it when they buy shares. His 1 in 5 is a dog  
depends on how good a stock picker you are and your timing in buying and 
maybe selling. It could be  3 or 4  or even 5 turn out to be loss if you buy 
at the peak  of the market and sell on the bottom.  
PGG is a good example of market fashions,  trading in a narrow band  and then 
climbing markedly not because of any change in fundamentals but because it's 
parent decided to list on the main board and there's a bit of publicity. 
Which says a lot for efficient  market theory. Mcdunks 4 years in the market 
shows good timing, whether he maintains his 30% when the inevitable  fall 
occurs is another question.                

That the market will drop is a certainty, when is the question. All the 
signals indicate the US  is way overpriced. when the US falls so does 
everybody else.

My goal is not to lose money and my philosophy  is possibly based on the 
premise that nobody lost money by taking a profit. If a share is profitable 
and the market looks dodgy sell it. In theory  this has cost me a lot of money  
over the last 2 years 
Contact sold at $4,  Trustpower  at $4  POA  at  $5.6   and so on. But paper 
profits don't count. Money in the bank does. My problem now is having the 
patience to wait for the downturn because  I see little value in the NZ 
market at present. 
Still hold GPG  {even the directors are selling} SPN, BRG, & WRI  ( will I 
accept ?)  and  a couple of  Aussie  punts.  All except BRG are in profit  
and  I  really  should sell but what if I am wrong and there's no downturn?     
 
And there's a couple of companies I  think might be just worth an investment. 
Thats why I find shares interesting. There are no certainties.

Harley.


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