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Karyn,
I only had a quick look at one of the stocks you
mentioned.
TNE - TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED
2.2.04 - CBA on 28.1.04 DISPOSED
- 33748804 down to 28199006
8.3.04 - CBA on 3.3.04 DISPOSED
- 28,199,006 to 25,230,267 (8.45%)
15.3.04 - Ronald McLean (Director) on
12.3.04 DISPOSED
- 400,000 shares for $240,000
- NOTE: NUMBER HELD AFTER CHANGE -
ZERO
Is this your best argument for everyone to listen to
your doomsday advice and stock recommendations?
Have a great day,
Cris
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, April 02, 2004 12:30
PM
Subject: [sharechat] RE: MUL and other
technology stocks
Hi
What MUL do is buy bandwidth from a satellilte owner, and
onsell it in
various guises with a margin to customers. They do not
do anything
different from any other telco or ISP, it is only the
technology that is
different. If you rang Telstra, Optus and AAPT
they will all be able to
sell you the exact same service that MUL
provides.
However, whether you are a reseller of fibre, ATM, xDSL, copper,
cable, 3G,
or satellite bandwidth, the business model is the same, the
competitive
issues are similar, the services delivered over the bandwidth
identical.
The choice of delivery mechanism of these IP services
depends on
availability, price, and suitability for the service. The
market for
satellite bandwidth is actually a niche one - as landline
access is now
pretty ubiquitous, and where it is not, mobile providers are
moving in (eg.
Africa, Iraq)
All major telcos and many ISPs use
satellite bandwidth in some form or
another, as it used to be a lot
cheaper than buying fibre (up until the big
cables like Southern Cross
came online, then the price differential went the
other way).
Nowadays the most common reason to stick with using satellite
is to
provide an alternative redundant path to the land-based cables, ie. in
the
event of Southern Cross or its ilk being damaged, the Internet traffic
can
be routed via satellite. This is one reason why Defence services like
it - it is less vulnerable to physical interference than land-based
transmission mechanisms.
Ihug (part of iiNet) in NZ and Australia
has been offering satellite
services since around 1996 - http://www.ihug.com.au/getultra/satellite.html
- both at a consumer and wholesale ISP level. However, its
limitations
(such as rain fade) have meant that it is not preferable to a
land-based
technology, and therefore never really took off.
I've
worked for telcos/ISP's since 1995, so I'd like to warn people to not
be
snowed by the profilic use of technology terms, the steady stream of
press
releases, announcements of "big contracts", etc because I've seen it
all
before, and I know that the reality is that they dont mean anything! The
fact that they have to announce these things at all (when every other
telco/ISP treats similar deals as business as usual) just signals how
desperate they are to con the uninformed and technology illiterate
public.
(For the record, I also have issues with the bullshit that SKG
announce on a
regular basis for the same reasons - most of the stuff is so
passe now that
their "deals" are simply copying what other providers have
already been
doing for several years now. For instance, I was
discussing wireless
broadband global roaming with iPass back in
2001!)
MUL is a small company, operating in a global market, with no
competitive
advantage, subject to intense competitive pressures due to
oversupply, a
market dominated by large telcos with very deep pockets, and
with new
entrants (eg. 3G providers) set to erode their market
niche. That is not
to say that they are a bad company - they
may be around forever, they may
make profits and even provide a good
return on capital, but the fact is is
that in this industry things change
so quickly that crystal ball gazing is
damn near impossible - after all, a
few years ago we were all certain that
grocery shopping and buying pet
food online was going to be huge too!
I am a cynic - if I saw a run of
"big" announcements followed by a director
selling out, then I'd be doing
the same!
I think David said it best ("Lets party like its 1999), and
add that "those
who do not learn from history are condemned to
repeat it".
Now on an upside - if you do want some decent tech stocks
to invest in, then
take a look at TNE, VGL, DTL on the ASX (all pay a
5%-7% dividend) and RNS,
PVO on the NZX. I prefer to "invest" in
tech, not "speculate" - as I learnt
my lesson in the 90's and will not
repeat it
:-(
Karyn
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