Forum Archive Index - February 2004

[Stephen Judd <stephen@vital.org.nz>]

On Wed, 2004-02-25 at 01:28, robin benson wrote:

> > Today I sold WRI and WHS, anticipating further decline, at a 13 and 15%
> > loss respectively. I'm still in the black overall, but not feeling
> > nearly so clever.
> 
> Why these figures? Did you decide on them from the beginning?

No, I had actually decided on 10%. I was slow to move because I felt
convinced that hanging on a little while would turn them around (this
has not happened with either today, which makes me feel a little
better).

>> I'm guilty of having abandoned my own plan, which was to follow the
> > maxim "sell if you're confident you can buy back in later at a better
> > price".
> 
> Pardon my reaction, but that's a pretty loose plan!

Not at all.

On the other hand - doesn't stockpicking rest on believing that you know
know something about the future that other people don't?

> > I actually did think that about two weeks ago, and should have
> > acted then.
> 
> Two weeks ago, as with one second ago, is history. Learn and move on.

I will and am.

> [1] On an FA basis. Phraedrus, however, might have some sage advice on 
> the basis of the chart. Have you looked at his writing on TA (on the 
> Sharechat site)?

Yes. Having recently read Malkiel's _Random Walk Down Wall St_ I'm still
deciding what I think about that.

I'm well persuaded that TA has something to say about when to pick your
buy and sell moments, but I cannot reconcile myself to a long-term
strategy that does not take the long-term viability of a company into
account. OTOH, if I understand Phaedrus correctly, he is not a TA purist
either - he's using it to pick his moments, but not his stocks, if you
will.

Incidentally, I'm posting this because looking back on the sharechat
archives, we don't often talk about where we went wrong. I do feel a
little defensive already, but I'm very glad of yours and Snoopy's
responses.

Cheers

Stephen


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