Forum Archive Index - February 2004

["Cristine Kerr" <criskerr@optusnet.com.au>]

Thank you very much Woody.

----- Original Message -----

From: Woody

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Friday, February 13, 2004 11:25 AM

Subject: Re: [sharechat] Direct & Ripple Effects, Cushions Reply

Cris

I am not about giving time frames: However My long term charts and my historical research give the following.

 

There will be a significent decline in gold during this year: The end of 2004 and or the beginning of 2005 should see the beginning of the major gold rally. We have basically been in a major uptrend since September 1999.

The low of that date was 254.80 Gold rallied up to 338.00 in October 1999: It then declined in April 2001 to almost the exact same low of Sept 1999   255.80 From there we saw a huge rally up to 384.50 by Feb 2003: Followed With a decline to a little lower than the old High of October 1999    333.70.  Now the next major rally was to the    428.30 level on Jan 2004. I would now expect gold to rally to the next level of about 450.00 before we would get a significent decline I would expect to see a decline of about 70 to 80 pts before we would get a super rally of about 130 pts above the predicted 450 high that would see gold at a level of 580.00 this would signal the beginning of the continuation of the Super rally in gold which I would expect it to reach the levels of Jan 1980 of over 800.00

Woody

----- Original Message -----

From: Cristine Kerr

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Friday, February 13, 2004 9:50 AM

Subject: Re: [sharechat] Direct & Ripple Effects, Cushions

Thanks Woody.

 

Re: Gold Price

 

Request for general comment:.

 

1) If this occurs, it would have immediate affect on those invested directly in gold.

 

2) If this occurs, it would have immediate affect on miners or related businesses that are reliant on gold for revenue.

 

3) If this occurs, it should have little or no affect on stocks  that are not primarily reliant on 'gold' as a primary source of revenue.

 

4) If this occurs, it should have little or no affect on stocks whose present market value does not include a weighting factor related to revenue from gold.

 

5) Logically, there should be a correlation between gold price movement and stock price movement for companies whose revenues are primarily reliant on gold, eg; gold up (or down) 10%, stock up (or down) 10%.

 

Also logically, the free trade agreement added value to mineral stocks. I have not witnessed any evidence this has been factored into mineral stocks by the market so could this create a cushion effect during any period of correction?

 

Without pinning anyone down to predictions or definites, what's the general sentiment?

 

Regards,

Cris

 

 

----- Original Message -----

From: Woody

To: Sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Friday, February 13, 2004 12:32 AM

Subject: [sharechat] Warning

Be careful of the recent rally in gold stocks, suckers rally: Gold is due for a decline. A pull back to 382.51 or even 371.70

is a high probability.

Woody