Forum Archive Index - January 2004

["Baa Baa" <baa_baa@hotmail.com>]

Hello Cris,

I'll be around. You can find me more often than not on 
http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi (B.A.A.) but, 
I muck around with a few other site and I'm kind-of enjoying sharechat for a 
change. Seems to be a few -smart- posters here.

Tks for the encouragement.

BAA


>From: "Cristine Kerr" <criskerr@optusnet.com.au>
>Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
>Subject: Re: [sharechat] POG TA
>Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 06:19:08 +1000
>
>Dear Baa Baa,
>
>
>I am really enjoying the content of your posts and the numerous exchanges 
>with others on this forum, and am hoping you'll be around for a while.
>
>Why 'Baa Baa'?
>
>
>Regards,
>Cris
>   ----- Original Message -----
>   From: Baa Baa
>   To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>   Sent: Monday, January 26, 2004 8:54 PM
>   Subject: [sharechat] POG TA
>
>
>   Price of Gold (POG), in USD.
>
>   Still keying off the USD, although increasingly the Euro too, the POG
>   remains in a corrective phase from 6/1/04 $428 high. This correction has
>   retested and failed at the high, eased quickly to 417 then gapped down 
>to
>   close at 408 on 15/1, followed the day after by a first test on the 50MA
>   around 405. Last week, the POG range traded between 413 and 408, but, 
>today
>   (Aus/Asia) on renewed USD strength, tested and broke the 50MA moving to
>   404.50 - currently about 406. This could be either wave 5 of A down, or 
>more
>   likely wave 3 of A down. Some might consider the leading US mining 
>stocks as
>   a lead indicator, esp the mid/large cap NA's in the HUI, for example 
>BGO, &
>   NEM, both of which are well advanced in their correction (anticipated 
>gold
>   weakness).
>
>   Price action since the 13/1/04 is in a well formed PDT (power down 
>trend).
>   Key indicators show weakness -%R in oversold, STO perked up, but has 
>crossed
>   over again to ovesold, MACD oversold and recrossing MTM/CCI weakening.
>   Volume has risen but in the sell side.
>
>   Projections:
>
>   Plan A - assuming USD strength continues (my TA on USDX says 89-94 range 
>is
>   target resistance trendline - currently 86.5), then, expect to see the 
>POG
>   100MA at $395 and that'll be enough to spook the weak hands for a retest 
>of
>   the all important S2 line at 378, and below that the 200MA about 373 ...
>   always a strong. Response: Buy progressively into weakness, accelerating
>   accumulation as each support fails and if a turn occurs, convert all dry
>   powder for the ride back up.
>
>   Plan B - assuming USD weakens, unlikely imo, but anything can happen and
>   often does. Look for key resistance at 413 and gap filler at 417. I hate
>   buying strength, but if it pops through 425, pile in but keep a finger 
>on
>   the sell trigger. If 428 falls, hang on for the ride. I am using a
>   5SMA/14EMA crossover to confirm the trend change.
>
>   Finally, "bear" in mind the 'Prechter Zone'. Widely maligned the 
>perennial
>   bears insist the failure at 428 was a 8 year top -wave 5 or (5) of
>   [C]circled, which in english is OUCH! The Prechter zone for the current 
>move
>   is $50-$75 decline to the range 377-353 (ergo the 200MA!). 
>Alternatively,
>   consider the Sinclair zone ... somewhere near the moon, but even Jim is
>   suggesting a decent correction if we can't break out of the trading 
>range to
>   the upside This Week..
>
>   JMO,
>   BAA
>
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>
>   
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