Forum Archive Index - January 2004

["Woody" <solarmax@optusnet.com.au>]

To Macdunk

Obviously you are not as much as an expert as you claim. If so you are  better informed than all the casino's in the World. The Martingale system works, it has been proven to the dismay of many casino's. The main flaw being that the amounts betted can become enormous.

Two-up is played with Three Coins. Therefore eliminating the 50/50 balance. ergo: The third coin.

If you toss 2 Coins enough times they balance out. If you refute this then obviously you failed maths at school.

The possible outcomes are:

                        FIRST COIN                                SECOND COIN

Outcome 1:        HEAD                                        HEAD

Outcome 2:        HEAD                                        TAIL

Outcome 3:        TAIL                                           HEAD

Outcome 4:        TAIL                                           TAIL

 

Outcome 1:     Probability  = 1/4

Outcome 2:     Probability   = 1/4

Outcome 3:     Probability   = 1/4

Outcome 4:     Probability   = 1/4

 

            Total----------------------= 1

The probability of the event, 'exactly one head ' is therefore the sum of the probabilities of Outcomes 2 and 3

 

P( 1 Head ) = P ( Head-Tail ) + ( Tail - Head ) = 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2  therefore 50%

This is simple prep school statistics and probabilities taught in every school in this world, perhaps not in your world but elsewhere. I am afraid your expertness is beyond the logic of simple Maths. Ergo your distrust of mathematical calculations.

I have used simple expotential distribution to design my System and I have designed a program within SuperCharts that scans  all downloaded data for my criteria

 You claim expertise in the knowledge of Statistics and Probabilities, sorry macdunk as much as I like you I see a white lie here or should I state Winston Churchill ( a technological inexactitude )  If you wish to discuss Expotential random variables and their relationship to Poisson distrubution. The bell curve or pdf's ( probability density functions ). I am your man. However if the purpose of your reply is to just oppose me then you are opposing the whole field ofstatistics and probabilities. A field that seems to be beyond your understanding.

 

I may come over as a simple person due to my less than perfect command of the English language but Maths man that is a universal language and I am bloody fluent in it. Disagree with me on many issues but touch maths you had better study more.

 

You use Maths

The PE ratio is one of the most widely watched measures of valuation for both the stock market as a whole and individual stocks. Many people use it to determine whether the market (or a given stock) is "expensive" or "cheap". The calculation is very simple. You simply divide the price by the yearly earnings.  P/E ratio = Price/Earnings. This is a mathamatical calculation.

Capitalization
Dividend Growth Rate 5-Yr
Dividend Yield
Earnings ($Millions) 1-Yr
Earnings as a percent of Sales 1-Yr
Earnings Growth Rate 5-Yr
All these are Mathematical Calculations

 

 

 

   

 

As for  experts well I have studied Martingale, In the Martingale roulette system, each bet is doubled after a loss, and you go back to your starting bet after every win. You will win one unit for every win, as long as you have enough money and do not get to the house limit. Once you reach the house limit, then you will lose the house percentage because there is noplace else to go.

----- Original Message -----

From: Duncan MacGregor

To: sharechat

Sent: Saturday, January 17, 2004 2:00 PM

Subject: [sharechat] Systems and probability reply by macdunk

Hi woody
             You have touched on a subject that old macdunk Is an expert on.     You can never win over the long term by doubling up.       Try running a two up school, after two or three times a head comes up, everyone backs a tail.   Martingale developed the system where for arguments sake you bet one dollar to win, and double the stakes after a loss until It wins.     Work out the odds on It happening thirty times In a row.       The answer Is exactly the same.    You are risking over a million dollars to win one dollar.
The person running the crown and anchor school wins one sixth on average If the board Is evenly covered.     The only game to play Is blackjack If you train your self card counting and are completely disciplined.  
You have to be a clown to think you can win at most gambling games.        The share market Is not a gamble the odds are In your favour.         Dont go to sky city to win money, the easy way Is to buy shares In It, and laugh at the punters.
My own opinion Is a mathematical system on the share market wont work as well as doing the homework, and develop your own system and use whatever tools you are happy with.       My system tells me HQP   PWC are the ones to watch In the next four months with POT a screaming buy If china starts loading up with our wood         Give me heaps If I am wrong
                                      
                                                            cheers macdunk