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[sharechat] Systems and probability reply by macdunk


From: "Duncan MacGregor" <d-m_macgregor@xtra.co.nz>
Date: Sat, 17 Jan 2004 17:00:31 +1300


Hi woody
             You have touched on a subject that old macdunk Is an expert on.     You can never win over the long term by doubling up.       Try running a two up school, after two or three times a head comes up, everyone backs a tail.   Martingale developed the system where for arguments sake you bet one dollar to win, and double the stakes after a loss until It wins.     Work out the odds on It happening thirty times In a row.       The answer Is exactly the same.    You are risking over a million dollars to win one dollar.
The person running the crown and anchor school wins one sixth on average If the board Is evenly covered.     The only game to play Is blackjack If you train your self card counting and are completely disciplined.  
You have to be a clown to think you can win at most gambling games.        The share market Is not a gamble the odds are In your favour.         Dont go to sky city to win money, the easy way Is to buy shares In It, and laugh at the punters.
My own opinion Is a mathematical system on the share market wont work as well as doing the homework, and develop your own system and use whatever tools you are happy with.       My system tells me HQP   PWC are the ones to watch In the next four months with POT a screaming buy If china starts loading up with our wood         Give me heaps If I am wrong
                                      
                                                            cheers macdunk

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