Forum Archive Index - December 2003

[hugh webber <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

I once asked that question of some rugged individualistic 
day-trader and got the crusty reply "If I told you that I'd 
have to shoot you" ;-).

If you look a bit further back you'll see me unashamedly 
touting Contact - brokers raising their valuations up around 
the $6 mark, nice dividend coming on, story in today's Press 
BusinessDay on low water inflows and wholesale prices 
going up.....besides which they supply our household and if
they're going to gouge me with price increases I may as well 
buy them. Not really affected by level of the NZ $, interest rates, 
junk food, ban on tobacco & & are they.....

Scott Technology and Sanford have been doing well too.....I 
like to see an exporter of a scarce commodity (SAN) fully hedged and 
doing well out of it.

Now I've taken early retirement I have a new approach or rather 
an additional approach to just value investing and sitting for long 
periods but if I told you what you fellers would all knock the 
trough over in your rush and spoil it for me....

Suffice to say it doesn't involve charting/"technical analysis",
momentum trading, unproductive stuff like gold or stamps,
tips, or advice from "financial planners". Nor does it involve 
overseas shares....reading chicken entrails.....or giving away 
my picks until after I have effected them.


The one mistake I made was to buy a non Buffett type stock 
on the basis of short term return but it did the dirty on me even 
in the short time I was in so I eventually ruthlessly cut my loss and 
dumped it rather waiting for it to recover or more likely go belly up.
The worst threat is of falling in love with a stock so you're always looking
for a way of rationalising holding it ..... better to dump it and get stuck 
into a stock with 
more upside than a possible recovery to the probably doomed one.

It always amazes me how ShareChat and The Other Channel manage to go 
off on so many wild goose chases....there seems to be absolutely no
 discussion on CEN for example....but heaps on gold, RBD, ....and if 
you go further back...to things like Aquaria (now some footling organic 
whatsit)...
which used to get more discussion on Sharechat than any other stock.  

Now there was an interesting variation on the usual Black Tulip 
bubble. Some clever person spotted that there were a number of famous 
"names" on the register and regardless of the sort of bath names had taken 
in Lloyds Insurance they all piled into Aquaria which brought in all 
the momentum investors and chartists at 20+ cents a share regardless of 
the net assets being less than 2 cps....
How I laughed....

But look, I've gotta go and see what's cooking on the History Channel or 
Discovery or Nat Geo or UKTV, now that the scumbags have dumped CNBC..
Time was when you could get Bloomberg on one of the local channels in Canty,
sob....



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