Forum Archive Index - November 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Allan, 

>
> Does any one know why AUO fell in price last week, the huge turn over
> obviously was some one "selling down" as opposed to some one "buying
> up". I have looked on hot copper and the last mention of it was on the
> 11/11/03, I was on the point of buying and felt I had better get a
> handle on recent developments first. I had the feeling that next year
> things would pick up for them.
>

I don't follow Austral Coal directly, but I do keep half an eye on the 
steel market.    Austral Coal IIRC, supply the high grade coal that many 
of the Japanese Steel producers use.

I notice that BSL (it was 'BHP Steel', but has a new name now) has 
come down sharply in the last few weeks because of a profit warning, 
partly because of the rising $A.    Note that AUO also has costs in $A 
and sells in $US, so no doubt it is no doubt similarly affected.

The WTO have slapped George W Bush over the hand  because of his 
steel tariffs.   Ironically it was the imposition of the tariffs a couple of 
years ago that caused a bull market for steel, so maybe the reverse 
will happen this time?   Steel is a global commodity business so there 
may be some flow through to Japan who may try to hard ball AUO over 
next year's coal price to save costs.

This is all speculation on my part.  I haven't done my homework on 
AUO but offer my speculation to add to the melting pot of it out there.

SNOOPY



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