Forum Archive Index - November 2003

["Gavin Treadgold" <gav@rediguana.co.nz>]

> NZ Win (Using Australian TAB) = $1.28
> Australia Win (Using NZ TAB)  = $4.50
> 
> Using your ratio of 2:1  ($500 on Aus, 1000 on NZ) we get the figures:
> 
> If NZ win return = loss of $220
> If Australia Win = gain of $750

What happens if there was a draw at 80 minutes?

http://www.tab.co.nz/guide_s_faq.cfm

"Q. If I have chosen a player to win a competition and they tie with another
player what happens to the dividend I have on my ticket or printout from the
net?
A. Dead Heats or ties in Fixed Odds result in the face value of the ticket
being divided by the number of competitors in the tie.
Q. What if extra time is played in a match will this effect my result?
A. The winner will be determined after normal time (eg.90 minutes for
Soccer) unless otherwise stated."

So I assume that for a head-to-head draw, you will get half of your bet
returned. This would mean if Australia and NZ tied at the end of 80 minutes,
that you would lose $750 of your initial investment ($1.5k). So your three
situations are...

1. NZ wins = -$220
2. Australia wins = $750
3. Draw = -$750

Now, what you really need to do is incorporate the probability of each of
these three outcomes - because these three options are not equally likely to
occur. Basically, you calculate the probability of an event occuring times
the value of the outcome, and then sum these values across all
possibilities, and that gives you the Expected Value of the game. If it is
positive you should win in the long run, negative and long run you are
expected to lose.

Assessing the probabilities of each outcome is the difficult part...

Cheers Gav





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