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Hi McDuck
Most of what you say is good down to earth common sense, but your
claim - "Everything runs in cycles" is waffle. Even
cyclical industries can be overridden by structural factors such as
politics, regulations, technology, demographics and changing lifestyles
that can consign an industry in a 'down cycle' to an also ran, forever. It
should not be too hard to think of a few examples here.....? The
important thing to remember is to consider the wider picture when looking at a
so called 'cycle' or you may be in for an unpleasant surprise if that
industry is also affected by structural factors, I'm surprised a lateral
thinker like yourself hasn't considered this!
Cheers Dean
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, 25 October 2003
21:41
Subject: [sharechat] time for a waffle.by
macdunk
The site has gone quiet thought that I would
share some of my thoughts with you on systems of Investing.
My
original Investments on the market have doubled In value over a four
year period, so It might be of some Interest to a few If I share what I
have been up to warts and all. I rule out any
company that expands for the sake of expansion or sells the premises to
expand, or gets silly Ideas what the top dog Is
worth. Snouts In the trough [telecom Is a
good example] nobody Is worth what they expect.
Every thing runs In cycles, so I study what Is at the bottom and about
to rise.
The NZ dollar Is a good Indicator If It Is high get out of
export companies [farming, forestry,etc, and get Into service
companies. Ports, airports, lines
and power companies. My Idea Is go over all the companies In
a sector, and pick the two that are best and reject the
others. I invest a quarter amount In each
with a strict stop loss and later If I picked It right Invest the full
amount. Five companies maximum the
more companies the less gain. I have learned last
years darling this years dog, my mistakes this year were retail. I
anticipated with the nz dollar going so high that retail would be a
winner, oh so wrong It cost me two stop losses. How ever I picked
pwc at the bottom and hqp at the bottom but I made a mistake with poa I
sold out at $8.10 one week to early. I
seem to have a tendency to sell to soon I did that with stu and
fisher and paykel In the past. The best share In
my portfolio I think Is hqp followed by pwc then aia and finally pot In
that order.
I have been wrong before but I think I have It right for
now. Hire quip have a lot of assets up for sale,
and a good cash flow business related to the building sector, there
prospects are very good. Power co has a
lot of debt but Is a well run company that Is expanding at a great pace
In a well organized way. Auckland airport share price
will rise 20pc pa regardless. Port
of Tauranga my worst performer Is the best run port In the southern
hemisphere, lies In wait of a wall of wood to leave the shores what more
can I say. After my first strict stop loss I play It by ear
with caution being my top priority.
The posters that Influenced Influenced me most In my trading are snoopy
and a couple of the TA posters.
The Chinese leader In nz at the
moment Is of great Interest to me that Is where our future trade will
come from the american Influence will decrease That
wall of wood might end up there In china with any
luck.
cheers macdunk |
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