Forum Archive Index - September 2003

["Allan Potts" <ajp7079@excite.com>]

Hi Phaedrus,

Many thanks for your help on this.  With my novice eye looking at the chart, it 
appears that the uptrend would be broken if the price falls below $4.10.  Are 
you using $3.85 as being a decisive break below trend line, or am I missing 
something?

Allan




 --- On Wed 09/10, Phaedrus  Phaedrus@techemail.com  wrote:
From: Phaedrus [mailto: Phaedrus@techemail.com]
To: Sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
Date: Wed, 10 Sep 2003 15:00:59 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [sharechat] POT Chart

Allan,<br>      POT remains in a long-term uptrend. It is above the long-term 
trendline and above a longterm moving average. It would need a close of below 
$3.85 to break the trend. POT is not heavily traded and this fact combined with 
a fair degree of volatility means that it is all too easy to be "flicked out" 
of stocks like this by using technical indicators that are too sensitive. This 
is overcome by using long periods for any chosen indicator. All the indicators 
shown below have been "detuned" by this means. I have marked the secondary 
trends with red and light green trendlines. <br> So, longterm holders will 
still be holding. Medium-term traders will probably have sold early this year 
when the medium-term upward trendline was broken. They would be looking to buy 
back in on a break of the current downward medium-term trendline or perhaps an 
SAR reversal signal. With stocks like POT, so long as the longterm trend 
remains intact, it is difficult (though not impossible) to beat simply buying 
and holding.<br> Regarding entry opportunities, one of my favourite indicators 
is the Relative Momentum Index. This gave a Buy signal on 31/3/03. It is 
interesting to see that this detuned indicator has given only 5 buy signals in 
10 years. Anyone wanting more action than this need only shorten the period. I 
used 50 days - the MetaStock default value for this indicator is 20 days.<br>   
        Regards,<br>                      
Phaedrus.<br><br>_____________________________________________________________<br>Are
 you a Techie? Get Your Free Tech Email Address Now! Visit 
http://www.TechEmail.com<br>Attachment: POT001.gif  
(20.21KB)<br>----------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>To
 remove yourself from this list, please use the form 
at<br>http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/

_______________________________________________
Join Excite! - http://www.excite.com
The most personalized portal on the Web!

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/