Forum Archive Index - September 2003

["Morgy" <ica.sports@xtra.co.nz>]

 

 

Sorry about that Duncam by PC froze and then I must have hot the send button, I have completed the last few sentences for you.

 

Morgy

----- Original Message -----

From: Morgy

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Saturday, September 06, 2003 12:42 AM

Subject: Re: [sharechat] Trends by macdunk

Duncan

 

Several weeks ago I posted a email relating to the same issues, except for Snoopy I recieved little contributions to what I consider to be a core attribute for any business endeavour i.e "being in the trend". A short story to emphasis the point is that the other day I was talking to a mate who is looking for a new business, his idea was to open up a a food business that sold in his opinion "real food", pigs nuckles and lots of meaty fatty stuff that people liked and couldnt get anymore. I was flabbergasted, here was McDonalds trying to change there menu to get rid of the fatty image and my friend was suggesting the opposite, possibly a contrarian who may have a small market but given we were talking what he considered mass marketed food I was quite shaken by his belief in what he considered good for everyone. His personal background (former pig hunter and farmer) and lifestyle merely showed his bias in what was good for everyone which of course is another peculiar issue in life that we all deal with.

 

If you are still awake after my story , the concepts you put forward are generally accepted as a core basis for investment and trading in most forms of financial and business modelling and if you have a desire there are a number of web sites or books that are available that will provide the information or the data for you to be able to do this in an organised manner. In fact I was just looking at an offering from a company called Paritech a little over an hour ago, it was $449.00 and provided every conceivable data search that you could ask for. At its simplest it will give you the key sectors performing over whatever period you desire (there example was 3 months) and then the shares within that are going off, it will even give you the fundamental anaysis (wasted on and oaf like me) should you have a notion for meaning within the data. I am sure there are cheaper things around or a method of doing it yourself via free publications but it all depends what time and effort you want to put into it.

 

Being caught on the wrong side of a trend in business or investment is not particularly enjoyable.

Generally speaking when those on the right side or in the know start buying that is called accumulation and that is normally the start of the cycle, smart money. When they start selling then that is called distribution, they know the top is coming and they distribute to the masses, weather it be property or investment and they sell to the mugs who are late,i.e people who start reading about it in the paper or see it on the news, normally mum and dad  investors and they walk into the next developing trend.

The amount of people I hear talling about the rise in their property values and if they should be getting a little rental investment tells me the top in our area will soon be over, when I dont know but it will happen sooner rather than later.

 

Happy hunting

 

Regards

 

Morgy

 

 

----- Original Message -----

From: Duncan MacGregor

To: sharechat

Sent: Friday, September 05, 2003 4:06 PM

Subject: [sharechat] Trends by macdunk

I have come to the conclusion that to make real money an Investor  must stick to what Is trending. 
This I would apply to shares, property, farming, and most other business Investments.   This leaves the question of when to time your entry.    Most trends only last long enough for the smart people to sell to the dummies who get caught at the top of the market.     The Idea Is to be first In and out before the herd realize Its on Its way down.
I always think of It as the hand of a clock, climb aboard at half past and out at five to the hour.   The property boom we are having at the moment began about three years ago, Investors In that or even only home owners have Increased there wealth more so than share Investors.   The average house In Auckland lets say Is $350000.     To someone that was smart enough to buy It on a $50000 deposit with a $300000 loan at 8pc.   If they were unlucky and the house Increased at the national average per annum of 14pc all that would mean was they were getting 6pc on $300000 of someone elses money to the value of the loan plus 14pc on there own money.    The smart Investor will realise It Is more profitable to get 6pc on some one elses money than 14pc on your own.   The advantage of buying at the bottom Is If you are mistaken and carefull not much gets lost.
The average share Investor (market value plus dividends) was left way behind In comparison to the property Investor.
What comes next? Is my question to the forum.
In asking the question I would like to think I can reinforce my Ideas of what I think with what Input other Investors have of the situation.  
The question Is what Is going to trend next?
                       cheers macdunk.
 

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