Forum Archive Index - July 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi winner69,

>
> Today is a truely momentous day in the history of sharechat.
> 
> Why - the true fundamentalist who does not have much time for tea
> leaves and all that sort of stuff and the true TA man who does have a
> little time for fundamental stuff AGREE on something.
> 
> Yes, the good and bad of fundamentalism and technical analysis have
> gelled into what has to be a screaming buy.
> 
> Hard to believe but true
> 
> In case you didn't notice heres what both  said -
> 
> Snoopy earlier - Selection number four is another cross listed
> Aussie: TLS ....... it has hardly ever been cheaper
> 
>Phaedrus says that after 4 years TLS is on the way up
>  
> And is it a full moon tonight as well
> 

Careful Winner.   Picking shares to invest in is not akin to the result of 
a popularity contest.  In fact very often it is the unloved wallflower 
shares that turn out to be best place to invest.

'Screaming buy' I think is a little optimistic, even though you have been 
itching to invest in TLS for years ;-).    

It is true that *I* have been a TLS fan for years.  I think they are very 
likely the world's best Telco investment.  But then a couple of years 
ago I thought AIR NZ was one of the world's best airlines too.    I 
learned to my cost that having a world class business in an industry 
where 90% of the other operators are near bankrupt is not necessarily 
a recommendation.....

I now have a preference for investing in businesses that are easy to 
understand, and I'm sorry to say that Telstra isn't that.    One day I'd 
like to get around to doing a more thorough analysis on the beast.

I still like the idea of having a series of cables in the ground with what 
must be minimal running costs compared to the revenue they can 
generate.  But there is a technology issue with Telstra, and indeed all 
telcos.    How much do they need to spend on their network to meet 
customer expectations?    Customer expectations are increasing all the 
time and so you have this capex/revenue balancing act to perform 
before the profit can be extracted.    And I haven't even mentioned the 
difficulty of whole networks becoming obsolete due to technology jump.

My feeling is that at some point the infrastructure will become good 
enough to allow the capex to wound right back and at that point the 
profits will roll.    Are we anywhere near that point?

It's hard to say, but as of today I regard TLS as a yield play with the 
*potential* for a quantum leap in growth.    My gut feeling is that the 
current TLS uptrend is nothing more than a result of falling interest 
rates and income investors seeking alternative places to park their 
money.    

Beware the full moon!
Don't expect to see TLS at $9 again any time soon!

SNOOPY





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