Forum Archive Index - June 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

It looks like we have a real contest on our hands in Stock Guru 2003.    
The 'brokers team' has just wrested the lead back away from the 
'sharechatters'!     Not really the news most sharechatters wanted to 
hear I am sure, but I have to report it how it is.

The Forsyth Barr portfolio, consisting of Auckland International Airport, 
Fletcher Building, Fisher and Paykel Appliances, Hellaby's and Waste 
Management has risen 24.8% since late January.

Our 'Johna' is close behind with his portfolio of Contact Energy, Fisher 
and Paykel Appliances, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare,  Guiness Peat 
Group and Sky City Casino which has risen 24.7%.

'Nigelb' is the only other competitor within cooee on +20.8%.

Taking the broader overview 2/3 of the brokers are now in profit, but 
only just over 1/3 of the sharechatters can say the same.  Oh dear!
Score another advantage to the brokers I think.

The sharechatters collective wisdom, being 'People's Picks', is 
showing a 4.65% gain for the year.     Not a bad return for six months, 
but still below the median point in the brokers stakes.     Unfortunately 
for the collective 'us' Tower is weighing rather heavily on the Peoples 
PIcks portfolio - down almost 30% for the year.

The top performing shares out of any selected by the sharechatters 
and/or the brokers, the so called 'dream five', are:

Hellaby's   +40.7%
Fisher and Paykel Appliances: +39.8%
Independent Newspapers: +33.9%
WestpacTrust:  +30.1%
Spectrum Resources +28.6%

A portfolio equally weighted between the 'dream five' would have risen 
34.6% overall.    Easy to pick with hindsight, but our competitors aren't 
allowed that benefit!    Given this performance limitation I think the 
selections of 'Forsyth Barr' and 'Johna', both what I would call 
'mainstream' portfolios with no wildcards, have been very creditable.    

However come the end of the year, these mid season results will mean 
nothing.   No prizes for leading halfway.    Only the December result 
will count.

SNOOPY


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