Forum Archive Index - June 2003

["Harry Jones" <h.jones@ecu.edu.au>]

Hi Chatters,
I find speculation about the future fascinating. What do you knowledgable 
prophets think about the following scenario and what would be a sensible long 
term investment strategy. I think changes in the sources and uses of energy are 
inevitable. Sources of liquid fossil fuel may or may not be exhausted but the 
raw materials seem fairly sure to become more expensive. We can therefore 
expect to see resurgence in the use of coal for power generation together with 
some increase in reliance on solar water heating and wind and tidal turbines 
where these have a local advantage. To some extent hydrogen may replace liquid 
fuel in powered mobile devices although I agree with Mills that a convenient 
means of carrying it is not yet in sight. The development of economic power 
generation using nuclear fusion seems less likely now than 50 years ago when 
hopes were high. We can expect that devices that are sparing in the use of 
power will proliferate and photovoltaic cells be found in many of them. Perhaps 
too, scientists may find some way to convert the higher frequencies of light 
into the lower frequencies used for heating, so further exploiting power from 
the sun, our only direct source of energy. Fuel cells may also reduce in price 
and earn increased popularity and if superconductivity can be mastered it may 
result in a more economical use of energy sources.  Communications and 
transportation are likely to change significantly. Even now it is possible to 
speak to anyone anywhere in the world from anywhere else, given the 
appropriate, admittedly expensive, equipment. Inevitably this ability will be 
still further enhanced.  However, with the probable increasing cost of liquid 
fuels, actual transportation of heavier items including people may become more 
expensive. Nuclear powered aircraft still seem improbable but even now nuclear 
submarines can travel faster than surface vessels and may begin to compete with 
increasingly expensive aircraft. Perhaps also therefore high-speed nuclear 
powered trains may be developed, although if the hazards of nuclear devices 
cannot be overcome to the satisfaction of the public it may remain impossible 
to bring either trains or submarines into the major centres. The young person 
roaming the world before settling down to earn a living may become a 
disappearing species and local rather than centralized manufacture may 
increase, although research and design may become even more centralized. 
So how can one turn prophecy into profits?
Harry Jones



----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/