Forum Archive Index - May 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Marilyn,
 
>
>
>On Monday Macdunk posted speculating that Transrail would be 
>a good buy.
>  
>I hope Macdunk put his money where his mouth is.
> 
>Good call Macdunk.
> 
>Boop-boop-de-do Marilyn
> 
>PS Current price 73c up 21c
> 
>

Well I hope Macdunk made something on it too, even though I picked 
TRH as a share not to touch at any price on the Focus Investment board 
recently.    Do I regret this suggestion?

No not at all, for as Macdunk said himself it was a speculation.   If the 
offer had not come along Tranzrail might still have faced bankruptcy in 
June.     On the Focus Investment Board we do not engage in such 
speculation.  That doesn't mean that it isn't possible to make money by 
speculation, as today's case clearly demonstrates.  It just means there is 
no room for such speculation in the disciplined approach to investment 
we take on the Focus Investment Board.

I still think that given the offer we have seen in the market today for 
TRH, that at 45c on Monday TRH was a double or nothing bet.    Just 
because the dice came up double doesn't mean it was a good 
investment at 45c, without the benefit of hindsight.    It would be 
interesting to know if, without the benefit of hindsight, technical analysis 
would have given a buy signal on TRH last Monday.

SNOOPY



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