Forum Archive Index - May 2003

["Michael McGregor" <mikemcgregor@nzoomail.com>]

>Hi Mike,
>
>>
>>
>> Farmers brace for rising kiwi 
>> 
>> 13.05.2003
>> By LIAM DANN 
>> The rural sector is steeling itself for further surges in the kiwi
>> dollar, which yesterday hit 58USc for the first time in more than five
>> years. 
>> 
>> "It looks like it's heading for 60c," said Affco finance manager
>> Robert Gerrie. "We're bracing ourselves for that. 
>> 
>> "Every cent it moves makes us more uncompetitive." 
>> 
>> Federated Farmers vice-president Charlie Pedersen said currency woes,
>> combined with drought, left some farmers facing one of their worst
>> years for more than a decade. 
>>
>>
>
>Note "some farmers"
>
>>
>> 
>> "It's as tough a year as many farmers have ever had to deal with." 
>> 
>> Only the fact that farmers were coming off two good seasons was
>> buffering the sector from the kind of downturns suffered in the late
>> 1980s and early 1990s, Pedersen said. 
>> 
>> Meat exporters are being hit harder than dairy farmers. 
>> 
>> 
>
>
>So what we have here is a statement that things are going to get very 
>tough for meat processors.   
>
>Yet the header on this thread refers to all the listed farm supply 
>companies.    Now here is a question for you Mike and all the other 
>rural doubters.
>
>If next year is going to be tougher for farmers than the last two, and I 
>don't deny that it will be, then how cheap does the share price of WRI, 
>PGG, WKL and Allied Farmers need to get to reflect this?
>
>Would you not buy into this sector at all?   In other words WRI at say 
>5c, would still be too expensive for you?   Or do you think the price of 
>WRI should halve to say 55c before you would be interested?   What 
>do you think is a reasonable price for WRI in the circumstances you 
>have outlined?   Well?
>
>SNOOPY
>
>discl: hold WRI
>
>--
>Message sent by Snoopy 
>on Pegasus Mail version 4.02
>----------------------------------
>"You can tell me I'm wrong twice, 
>but that still only makes me wrong once."
>
>
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>
>Snoopy,
              Well, as a matter of fact, I don't really have any opinion as
I have not made any 
comments on the farming sector. It must be another Mike you are thinking of.
But while we are on 
the subject, I would love to own shares in Westland Dairy Co-op or that 
equivalent
North Island 
one. They have certainly outperformed Fonterra since it's formation. 
Unfortunately,
the entire 
farming industry relies on kind exchange rate and the weather. It's difficult
to make any 
predictions when there are these factors beyond our control.


Mike M    


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