Forum Archive Index - May 2003

[Phaedrus <Phaedrus@techemail.com>]

Bill, 
     Here is an updated WHS chart for you. My guess is that you are interested 
in any imminent buy signals. There aren't any - here's why :-Most of the charts 
I post focus on the medium-term trend. This means that they are inherently 
fairly conservative and thus a bit slow to respond to sudden short-term 
movements, always giving "late" buy/sell signals. Extreme price movements such 
as we have seen recently with WHS leave slow, consevative indicators far 
behind, making them irrelevant for a time. Anyone looking for a technically 
based Buy signal at around this time would need to move to faster indicators, 
such as the Stochastic oscillator.

McDunk,
       You ask if this large drop was forseeable, technically. No it wasn't, 
but WHS had been technically weak for many months prior to the big drop(s). I 
sold at the trendline break. Anyone using any TA at all would have been out of 
this stock well before the meltdown. This includes very conservative long-term 
investors - these people commonly use a 200 day ema to keep them on the right 
side of major trends. 
 You state that "One of the most Important things is to know when the writing 
is about to go on the wall." Delete the words "about to go" and I will agree 
with you 100%. While WHS was looking weak, and had given 4 separate Sell 
signals, the writing was not on the wall until prices dropped below the July 02 
- January 03 trading range support level. The second nail in the coffin was 
when prices plunged below the $5.25 support level. Both of these events 
happened very quickly - too fast for most people to act on, but in both cases, 
these precipitous drops were preceded by very clear technical weakness.

 I'm sure everyone knows that I don't do predictions, but just to show what a 
flexible chap I am, here is one. I predict that Snoopy's entry point will prove 
to be lower than the price at which WHS recrosses the 120 day ema (Medium-term 
moving average)
 The 2 magenta lines at the bottom of the chart mark the next two historical 
support levels. I would be surprised if they are breached, but what do I know?

                Phaedrus.

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