Forum Archive Index - March 2003

["Michael McGregor" <mikemcgregor@nzoomail.com>]

>Hi Macdunk,
>
>
>Sorry no predictions which way 'the market' is going from me, but 
>I can tell you why I don't make predictions.
>
>
>> 
>>  We investors need bad times in order to have great times.  
>>
>
>
>I agree with that.  But I don't have to predict the bad times.  I can 
>simply wait until bad times come and then buy things if they are 
>cheap enough. 
>
>I don't care which way the market is going.  I will buy in uptrends. 
>I will buy in downtrends.  Sure if you end up buying in a downtrend 
>the price may go lower, but I'm not too concerned about that.  I 
>don't believe I can pick the bottom price for a share.  I wouldn't 
>even consider buying a share I wasn't prepared to hold for two years. 
>so short term fluctuations mean nothing to me, *provided* I buy 
>in cheaply enough.
>
>
>>
>> My way of thinking is invest into good solid companies,
>>
>
>
>Just like when I invest in a term deposit I put it into a good solid 
>financial institution.  If you don't invest in something 'good and 
>sold' you might as well just go to the casino.
>
>
>>
>>  I expect the market to soar after the first shots are fired 
>>( any day now), and the moment its over to go into bull mode.
>>
>
>
>A brave prediction!  The first bit won't surprise.  The last bit 
>needs some careful clarification.  I doubt if we'll see another bull 
>market like the one that Clinton oversaw in the 1990s in the USA.   
>At least, not in the lifetime of anyone reading this post now!  I'd 
>say the 1990s were a once in a hundred year event.
>
>History has shown that sharemarket behaviour  usually 'regresses to 
>the mean'.   This means much lower inflation than we have now, a 
>growth rates of say 5% at most in bull market years, with bull 
>markets running for three to five years max.
>
>
>
>>
>>To all the financiers and advisors that have told us to invest in
>>lots of companies overseas and everywhere and spread the risk I
>>thought you were idiots then, and convinced of it now. 
>>
>
>
>
>I wonder if you were starting a chain of jewellery stores whether you 
>might open a few in New Zealand first or 'spread your risk' and open 
>one in Auckland, one in London, one in Tokyo one in San Francisco one 
>in Iceland and one in Timbuktoo?  Clearly the latter is the better 
>option because overseas people run shops better - right ;-P?
>
>Personally I think the way to lower your risk is to understand your 
>businesses better.   If you can buy a good business cheaply, it 
>shouldn't matter where that business is located.
>
>SNOOPY
>
>
>
>---------------------------------
>Message sent by Snoopy 
>e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
>on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
>----------------------------------
>"You can tell me I'm wrong twice, 
>but that still only makes me wrong once."
>
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>
>Hi Snoopy,

>Well I certainly agree with your philosophy regarding buying quality, but I
don't know if we will 
see another bull market after the war. The underlying fundimentals of the US
economy are not too 
flash at present and stocks are still overvalued on that basis. Hopefully we
will see some further 
declines in values and some of those Dow bluechips will start looking quite
attractive.

Regards,

Mike M

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