Forum Archive Index - February 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Phaedrus,


>
>The first chart shows GPG price movement in the UK in Pounds. (No
>trendline break). The second chart shows GPG price movement in the
>UK, but expressed in $NZ. (This is not just a simple conversion at
>the current rate - all prices are converted at the applicable daily
>rates). This chart shows a trendline break, and is essentially the
>same as the NZ chart, clearly illustrating the point you are
>raising. Interesting eh?
>


Thanks for all your work, in particular looking up all those $NZ/£UK
conversions.   I am not surprised that the chart of GPG in $NZ and
GPG in $NZ converted from £UK is almost the same.  After all,
allowing for the difference in opening hours between the NZ
and UK exchanges, we are plotting exactly the same thing.  Of note is
the dip to $NZ1.30 seen in the UK which was not mirrored in NZ.
However, such phenomena can often be explained away because the
market is thin.  In other words if you want to sell in a hurry you
have to take whatever scant price the market is offering you if there
aren't many shares being traded!  In general the market for GPG
shares in its home UK is thinner than that for those same GPG shares
in New Zealand.

The interesting thing about the fast appreciating kiwi dollar is that
this same phenomenon has both terminated the uptrend in NZ, yet is
responsible for continuing the uptrend in the UK.   I have this
picture of Phaedrus selling his shares, while at the same moment
there exists a virtual Phaedrus who lives in the UK, and is using
exactly the same trading system as Phaedrus does, who is buying them.


Of course you could argue that both are right and the different
behaviour of each Phaedrus simply reflects the country in which they
live.  Or another way of looking at it, if you don't try to play the
exchange rate game, is to consider support and resistance as a 'zone'
rather than a fixed value.  That kind of concept might boost
sharemarket returns where return is known to be negatively correlated
with increasing trading frequency.

SNOOPY





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