Forum Archive Index - February 2003

["Rockbottom" <rockbottom@ihug.co.nz>]

To get away from the perennial arguments of the benefits of gold versus rye grass and charting versus bean counting I spent a happy hour or so analysing the results of our investments over the last seven years by month. I would have to say the results were unexpected. I went into the exercise with a completely biased  mind expecting the second six months to be bad and October to be annis horribulis (even worse than my spelling). I was wrong. The results follow:-

 

The percentages represent the total gains (capital plus divis) made each month over the last 7 years divided by the total seven years gains.

 

 

    Jan            17.8%

    Feb            3.5%

    Mch           1.7%

    Apl            9.0%

    May            4.0%

    June            5.3%

    July            7.5%

    Aug            8.8%

    Sept            -27.0% (Loss!)

    Oct            22.6%

    Nov            28.4%

    Dec            18.5%  

 

    Total    100.0% 

 

If all months were equal, all would be 100/12 i.e. 8.3%

 

Thus the months that  performed significantly above average were

 

Nov, Oct, Dec and Jan.

 

The main loser was September.

 

On a quarterly basis

 

1st qter        23.0%    (average)

2nd qter        18.2%   (slightly below avg)

3rd qter        -10.7%   (Real bad)

4th qter        69.5%    (amazingly good)

 

Conclusion

This research is terribly biased but I wonder how it compares with other portfolios.

 

In the meantime sell everything in August and buy back in September.

 

Rockbottom