Forum Archive Index - February 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Macdunk,

>
>  The future can be predicted by looking at the past. 
> Thats what its all about predicting the future.  The charts that
> Phaedrus produces are a great indication of what may happen however
> Im glad to see he is humble enough to not predict the future. 
> Snoopy on the other side of the fence is the Sherlock homes of the
> forum, He has a large spy glass to go over company records.  Who is
> right and who is wrong both have there merits.  I have taken from
> both so thanks guys.  We must always expect the odd clanger a quick
> exit strategy is a must.  
>
>

Just a correction to your impression of my kit Macdunk.   I may have 
a large spy glass but it is the same size as your one.  And that of 
most other sharechatters out there!  There is no hotline to the CEOs 
office in this household.  You can all go on the internet and get to 
read the same annual reports that I am reading.  Then use 
straightforward mathematics that any four function calculator is 
capable of doing to derive your the statistics needed to make your 
share judgements.

You say a quick exit strategy is a must, but there is an alternative 
to getting aboard a strange bus.  Check the vehicle has a certificate 
of fitness first.  Check the driver is a reputable operator and check 
his driving history.  Crawl around under the bus and check that there 
aren't any hidden nasties underneath.  Check the windscreen is clear 
so that the driver at least sees where he's going.  This is my loss 
minimisation strategy.  Time consuming?  Sure but I value what 
capital I have accumulated too much to risk blowing it away on any 
old bus ride.

Others may jump onto any bus that seems to be going roughly in the 
direction they want to be heading.  But then with the slightest 
deviance from the perceived ideal route, they make a jump for the 
emergency exit.  It's another way of doing things, but it is not my 
way.

>
>
>I would like to see some more forecasting in the forum in the future 
>I think some people are scared off by the Im right and you're
>wrong brigade.  
> 
> 
        
I'd hate to see people put off posting here because others might 
disagree with them.  Personally I get a lot out of the posts 
where people disagree with me openly, and back that disagreement 
up with a good argument.  Those who simply nod their head in 
tacit agreement are far less useful to me.  Sometimes a counterview 
opens your mind to a perspective that you haven't thought of before.  
And that is good.

However, I think both Phaedrus and I will be ganging up against you 
on this one Macdunk.   You see, we may do things very differently. 
But one thing that we both agree on is that neither of us can predict 
the future.

For my part, I think I can make a fair fist of picking whether a 
share is cheap or expensive compared to an historical average of 
shares in that industry.   But I cannot predict whether the market 
will soon recognise what I choose as an expensive share and drive the 
price lower.  Nor that the market will immediately recognise my cheap 
share and drive the price higher.  I only know that such things will 
become more likely the longer I wait.   I like to buy shares 
cheaply.  But exactly how long I will have to wait (days, months, or 
even a few years) until the market sees things the same way I do I 
cannot say.  And as long as I am collecting a good dividend while I 
am waiting, I do not care!

SNOOPY



---------------------------------
Message sent by Snoopy 
e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
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"Stay on the upside of the downside, 
Anticipate the anticipation!"



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