Forum Archive Index - February 2003

["gooner" <nickk@quicksilver.net.nz>]

Allan

Your mandarin is legendary....now go to the local takeaways and say it!

I must say too that the Iraq thingy is a sideshow.  Irrespective of short
term war or long term war IMHO the US markets are in for years of doldrums.
The war might provide some short term boost should there be an imminent
resolution but IMHO fundamentally (and technically too) the financial
markets are knackered.  Amongst other reasons, too many people, countries
and companies throughout the world owe too much money (printed paper) with
no chance of repayment.

I am NOT a Gold freak; a contrarian; nor a doom merchant.  I am a realist.
I would love the markets to be booming and there are great stocks in this
country  that make a return better than the bank will pay.  It is just that
I prefer, at this moment, to be cashed out and in Gold.

About 18 months ago a friend told me to get out of my international shares
retirement fund.  Thankfully I followed his advice.  We only have to wait
for the next scam to come along (US pension funds) to see the depth of this
problem.
Cheers Al, and enjoy that fried rice next time.

Gooner


> While I do not  present myself as an expert  on markets or their actions,
I do have these thoughts.  Our (US) markets are still very expensive by
historical standards.  I know of no rule where markets cannot go down for 4,
5 or even 6+ years in a row.
>
> While I trust the possible upcoming Iraq war willl be short lived, I have
no idea what the actual aftermath will be.  Since it is Chinese New Year,
I'll reiterate the old Chinese curse -- may you live in interesting times.
I don't mean to curse anyone especially my country or family, but, we
unfortunataely are living in "interesting times"  RISK is abundant in our
markets sad to say, since I'm about 60% invested.  I guess what I'm saying
is, don't be so sure of a simple formula, although I very much hope you're
absolutely correct.
>
> I am not professing to tell you where you are wrong, just to caution you
that you MIGHT JUST be wrong and to tred with caution, as you should always
do in the financial markets.  Ghung hey fat choy.  (not sure I got the
spelling right since my chinese is a  little lacking.)  The Yank from
California.
>
> Allan
>
>
>
>
>  --- On Sun 02/02, Brent Keith < b.keith@paradise.net.nz > wrote:
> From: Brent Keith [mailto: b.keith@paradise.net.nz]
> To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
> Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 16:52:55 +1300
> Subject: [sharechat] Tell me where I'm wrong
>
> 3 years of recession,  +
> Very low interest rates/returns,  +
> Proposed US Tax cut's,  +
> Resolution of  War.   =
>
> BULL US market
> and by default World markets
>
> April?
> May?
> June?
> [ winmail.dat

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