Forum Archive Index - January 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Mike,

>
>
>With the N.Z. dollar  rising and in my view set to continue rising I
>imagine farmers will be concentrating on one thing;  making the
>mortgage payments. 
>
>

IMO, Mortgage rates are still quite low in historic terms.  I know 
farmers are back to doing some bleating, but in my memory farmers 
have always done this about 'something' (last year being the sole 
exception that comes to mind).

>
>
>Worse than average spring production will be
>insignificant compared to the rising dollar in the minds of farmers.
>
>

If they are WRI customer they might be hedged under Wrightson's 
'Solutions Strategy' and sitting pretty!

>
>
>They will be battening down the hatches and going into survival mode
>after having bought their new tractors and utes last year.
>
>

Survival mode means ensuring the farms don't turn into a dustbowl, 
and there is sufficient feed for the animals and/or crops.  Guess who 
can help farmers with that?   Furthermore you might have noticed that 
WRI don't sell tractors or utes, so if farmers stop buying them that 
is not necessarily bad news for WRI.

>
> 
>Another thing which has not yet been mentioned in the WRI  debate is
>the fact that final tax from last years bumper incomes will be due 
>THIS year providing yet another reason for farmers to cut back
>spending.
>

This is a good point you bring up Mike.

I'm not too sure about how farmers book their profits, and the timing 
of it in relation to taxes.  I know that *I* have a terminal tax 
invoice on my fridge relating to the 1 April 2001 to 31 March 2002 
financial year due on 7th February 2003.  I guess, if was a farmer, I 
could sell the crops to the mill or the animals to the works in good 
time to get a payout.  I guessing that both the mill or the works pay 
promptly so I wouldn't have any liquidity problems.  Or would I?  
Maybe all the farmers will be flocking to WRI for bridging finance?  
Would any farmers reading this like to comment?


> 
>WRI currently trading around $ 1.20 in my view provides an excellent
>opportunity to sell
> 


OK, I respect your opinion Mike.   You have put your argument well.  
Of course I reserve the right to disagree with you.  I'm not 
saying you are definitely wrong and I'm definitely right.  In the 
investment game, things are seldom that clear cut.  One of the joys 
of this forum is to get the views of the 'other side'.  It helps stop 
beagles getting too tunnel visioned!  And thank goodness there are 
people who want to sell shares when others want to buy them.   It 
would be very difficult to have a 'share-market' if it was any other 
way!

SNOOPY

disclosure: hold WRI

---------------------------------
Message sent by Snoopy 
e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
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"You can tell me I'm wrong twice, 
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