Forum Archive Index - January 2003

["DR" <hamish@webmail.visp.co.nz>]

Part commentary only:

 

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 10:43 AM ET Jan 14, 2003

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - The U.S. stock market, attempting a wobbly rebound from three years of losses, will continue to set fresh lows for at least three more years, a market historian says.

The researcher, Tim W. Wood, is a Louisiana certified public accountant whose stock-market studies the past two years have largely forecast breakdowns in all of the major equity indexes.

Wood is not the first to see trouble ahead for stock prices. A growing number of Wall Street strategists and economists, among them Merrill Lynch's Richard Bernstein, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach and JP Morgan's Doug Cliggott, are darkening their views on where the stock market is headed this year.

Wood, in examining four-year market cycles going back to 1896, distinguishes himself from the thousands of so-called technical analysts and market timers who sell their frenetic advice to individual investors. Wood's view has stuck, almost religiously, to the notion that the stock market will suffer an extended period of severe losses, regardless of the small rallies that have given investors hope for their ailing portfolios.

Lots more after this....