Forum Archive Index - January 2003

["soarer2" <soarer2@xtra.co.nz>]

Righto !!!



----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Saturday, January 04, 2003 10:27 AM
Subject: [sharechat] Snoopy Review of 2002


>
> "Hey baby."
>
> "Give me more of your candy."
>
> Those were the phrases that came to mind when summing up my own NZ
> market investment performance in 2002.  34th place in the 'stock
> guru' competition (in the top 10% of competitors) with a performance
> of 20% return after tax is a result I am well pleased with.  The
> amazing thing was, looking back, how easy it all was.
>
> The year started in a cloud of fear with the imminent invasion of
> Iraq, (which still hasn't happened), and the potential meltdown of
> the US market on the horizon.   But amazingly NZers continued to use
> their telephones (TEL), continued to buy power (CEN) continued to
> visit the Sky City Casino (SKC) and continued to buy takeaway food
> (RBD).  Meanwhile overseas appliance manufacturers have decided to
> tool up so they can continue producing world class whiteware (SCT).
> None of those predictive scenarios look that fantastic with
> hindsight.   Yet some would have you believe that the best way to
> handle a 'bear market' from the January 2002 perspective is sit on
> the sidelines and short shares.  While investors ruled by fear did
> just that, I enjoyed what was probably my best ever investment
> performance on the NZ market.
>
> Of course I didn't pick all winners.   The RBD price was knocked
> around by the punters as optimism on the expansion in to
> Australia first blossomed then faded.  Personally I'm not concerned
> and think that the long term business plan of RBD is very much on
> track.
>
> I got the impression that following the loss of Frucor, a lot of the
> 'go go' support for branded food shifted to RBD.  Put simply, there
> were some punters in there who expected too much too quickly.  RBD
> CEO Jim Collier did nothing to quell any fervour.  If Collier has one
> failing it is perhaps being too optimistic with the market
> commentators!    Combine that with the number of RBD shareholders who
> really want the company to do well (I admit to being sucked into that
> hollow updraft myself) and you can see how irrational exuberance
> around RBD might develop.  But will I be holding RBD in 2003?  Most
> definitely!
>
> My other big income share disappointment was Telecom.  I have to
> admit being worried by the deteriorating debt/equity position of
> this company.  I'm not sure that all the Australian write downs have
> been dealt with.  With the launch of 3G cellphones with Hutcheson in
> Australia I see more costs clouding the horizon.  My prediction is
> that Telecom will surprise this year.  But whether that surprise will
> come from finally hitting the right note in Australia (positive), or
> in the form of more Australian writedowns (negative), well my crystal
> ball is cloudy on that score.
>
> We appear to have lost a couple of valued contributors (at least)
> during the year.
>
> From the fundamental side of the fence, Hugh seemed to panic around
> NZ election time and sold out of his major investment, Kiwi Income
> Property Trust.  Since then Hugh has been silent, although KIP
> continues to do well.
>
> From the trader side of the fence (although to be fair calling
> this person simply a 'trend trader' is selling him way too short)
> Peter Maiden disappeared about mid year too.  This was one of his
> last coherent statements:
>
> "Rob puts a pretty compelling story around the risk
> premium of stocks over bonds now being zero or negative.
> This implies that bonds will outperform shares for the
> next decade or longer - even though stocks have
> outperformed bonds by 5% over the last 74 years."
>
> I wonder if Peter has now moved fully into bonds?  If *I* had done
> that to my income portfolio at the start of 2002 it would have taken
> me about five years to achieve in the bond market what I have
> achieved with my income investor shares in just one.
>
> Ah well, rest in peace you two.
>
> Income investors were presented with a couple of fabulous
> opportunities during the year, those being to purchase WRI at just
> over a dollar and LPC at around $1.40-$1.45.   I alerted
> sharechatters to these opportunities at the time, so I hope some of
> you got in on them, as I did.  Both shares have since moved
> significantly higher.
>
> As we look into 2003 we are once again faced with the prospect of war
> in Iraq and the possible meltdown of the US economy.  So what will I
> be doing? Probably not investing in US DOW tracking funds, nor in
> Iraq!  I don't expect another year as good as the last from the NZ
> market, but I am sure that just as in 2002, some interesting
> situations will develop.
>
> Rest assured that if any NZ CEO leaves their pram unattended for a
> while for no good reason, I'll be in there stocking up on candy from
> their baby.
>
> SNOOPY
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------
> Message sent by Snoopy
> e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
> on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
> ----------------------------------
> "Sometimes to see the wood from the trees,
> you have to cut down all the trees."
>
>
>
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