Forum Archive Index - January 2003

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi winner69,


Good feedback both from you and from 'rb' off the forum on e-mail.


> 
> 3G hits consumer wall
> Michael Sainsbury
> SEPTEMBER 06, 2002
> 
>Consumer recognition of 3G was at 55 per cent,
>only 25 per cent of consumers were interested in moving to 3G from
>their present mobile service. Recognition in Australia was below the
>61 per cent average across the 15 countries surveyed and global
>upgrade intention sat at 29 per cent, the report said.
>
>



I know this report has a negative spin, but these figures don't look 
that bad.  If I read this correctly around half of Australia is aware 
of 3G and half of those people ould be interested in moving to it.

I'd say that is a pretty healthy result considering the product 
hasn't hit the market yet!  I'm trying to think of an analagous 
situation and the nearest I can come up with is the introduction of 
colour television.

No-one *needed* colour TV as, after all, you could still watch all 
the shows on the good old black and white.  Also colour TVs were 
horrendously expensive when they first came out.  But as demand 
picked up the price went down, and now everyone who wants a Colour 
telly has one.   Can you name anyone who still has a black and white 
telly now?

I think it will be similar with 3G.  Ever had a postcard arrive, sent 
by a friend from some exotic location only to have the friend beat it 
home?  That won't happen when you send a 3G still photo, or video!  I 
think 3G is the kind of thing that will shape expectations, and 
sales, once it arrives.



>
> 
> The news will be cold comfort for Hutchison Telecommunications,
> which has already found itself the lone positive voice in the
> Australian 3G wilderness.
> 
> Despite paying almost $1 billion in spectrum fees, the big three
> Australian mobile players - Telstra, Optus and Vodafone - have all
> put plans to build expensive 3G networks on ice.
>


It is interesting that in Europe some of the 'competitors' are 
joining together to build a joint network  ( I've been reading the 
mmO2 website).   I wonder why they can't do that in Australia?  
Perhaps because Hutchison would be the one to gain most if someone 
joined it and none of the potential partners want to help Hutchison 
out?   Then again Vodaphone already have an agreement with AAPT, so 
perhaps they will get in on the act? 

According to 'rb' brand loyalty to your 3G mobile phone provider is 
very fickle in Italy, so maybe Hutchison won't have such a hard job 
effectively starting from scratch?



>
>one of the key barriers to take-up of 3G will be
>the cost of the handsets.
>
>These run at more than $1000 in a market which is seeing subsidies
>reduced and disappear.
>



Agreed although colour TV was expensive when it came out too.  I 
think they'll have to subsidise 3G handsets if they want any volume, 
much like SKY TV has done in New Zealand with their Satellite 
TV discs. They might persuade the early adopters to fork out a grand 
though.  After all I can remember when if you wanted to buy a digital 
camera, many were sold at that price.




>
>He said that AT Kearney believes that mass take-up of 3G is at least
>three to four years away.
>




And given that the sharemarket always looks ahead, we may see the 
future success of 3G priced into the share prices of the companies 
that have networks for 3g Phones only 12 months away!


> 
>Mr Higgins predicted that when 3G does eventually fly it will be in
>the business market.
> 

Office workers playing video phone games in their lunchbreaks?   
Anyone got any ideas on how the corporates might benefit from 3G?

SNOOPY


---------------------------------
Message sent by Snoopy 
e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
----------------------------------
"You can tell me I'm wrong twice, 
but that still only makes me wrong once."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/