Forum Archive Index - November 2002

["Geoff & Julie Walker" <gk_jawalker@paradise.net.nz>]

SNOOPY

 

in reply to your last comment - yes, I've made money on gold stocks this year.  Well up on LHG, CRS & AOR, down on NEM, TAM, even on NCM. 

 

I've sold 1/2 my NZ shares and invested the proceeds into Ozzy gold stocks for the following reasons;

 

1    I am EXTREMELY bearish on US stocks.  I can't believe their are still fund managers and other fools buying stocks at these ridiculously high levels.  The US consumer is spent, debt and credit are imploding and ..., heck, can it get any worse?? 

 

2    US bonds are the next bubble ready for pricking.  For example; Ford, GM, etc. debt is at junk bond levels.

 

3    The US pension liabilities are enormous and will weigh down on US companies for years.  Most of the expenses are still not being accounted for (GM reputedly has $29 billion in liabilities)

 

4    US$ has to depreciate to alleviate the horrendous trade deficit.

 

All in all, gold stocks are a good contrarian bet IMHO.  Ask me again in 3-6 months what has happened to gold stocks.

 

 

Regards

 

Geoff