Forum Archive Index - November 2002

["Phil Eriksen" <phil@acepay.co.nz>]

Hi Snoopy,

Nice ramble!  My goal was to achieve a return of approx 20%, as per last
year, which is at the upper end of what one could hope for by picking 5
shares that you could actually hold in "real life", not being able to go
overweight in a preferred share, and holding them for a year.  So far, I'm
above 20% and going alright.

I'll save the ramble for another day, but the question for everyone is this
: at this stage, what would be people's picks for next year?  Scanning
through the NZSE, I see the opposite of 2-3 years ago - quite a few
confident people, a feeling that NZ is "immune" to what those same people
feel will continue to unfold overseas, and very few shares that seem
genuinely attractive.

If I had to pick 5 shares today, to hold for all of next year, I'd be
battling.  If I was forced, I'd ask Ben to program a "buy the next 5 new
issues" option into the Stock Guru contest :)  I have a hunch that we might
be in for a mini-bubble in the next two years in new "exciting" companies
that are floated.  Weldon won't get the 50 he wants, but he will get 10 or
15.

What do others think?  Positive or negative about next year?

Cheers,
Phil



----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Thursday, November 07, 2002 12:28 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Stock Guru Comp & SLL


> Hi Nick,
>
> >
> >Don't know about you all but as a competitor/entrant I have been
> >following this and there is only a short time to go.
> >
> >Some impressive gains at the top.  The brokers leave a lot to be
> >desired.  I am more than happy with my year's work (albeit
> >imaginary) and the next few weeks could see some big changes.
> >
> >Anyone got any thoughts/pearls of wisdom?
> >
> >
>
> Yeah.  I fairly pleased with my 'income' portfolio sitting there in
> 68th place.  My goal was to make it into the top 40 which would give
> me a top 10% finish for two years in a row.  Ironically, if I'd stuck
> with AIR from last year I'd be a little closer to achieving it!
>
> However, I no longer regard AIR as an income investment, or even an
> investment at all.  Likewise FOR or SLL or whatever it is this week.
> The speculative punters seem to have taken over those two completely.
> Nothing wrong with having a punt of course, but without the benefit
> of hindsight, I think there were (are) better punts out there.
>
> Speaking of punts, haven't the people on the bankers side of the
> roulette wheel had a good year?  I refer of course to SKC, which last
> year I dubbed as 'NZs best share'.  I really like the idea of a new
> hotel above the new Convention Centre.  Ratcheting growth on the
> core of the busineess sounds like an excellent strategy.
>
> It's funny, but at the start of the year I thought RBD would be my
> star, and there it is dragging my portfolio down!  Ben, I think RBD
> shareholders received a voucher for a free chicken burger during the
> year.  Make sure you add that to the RBD total, won't you?
>
> Sorry about the ramble.  Would anyone else like to have one?
>
> SNOOPY
>
>
> ---------------------------------
> Message sent by Snoopy
> e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
> on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
> ----------------------------------
> "Dogs have big tongues, so you can bet they don't
> bite them by accident"
>
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