Forum Archive Index - October 2002

["winner69 ." <wwinner69@hotmail.com>]

Good stuff about LPC snoopy - here and on the FIG message board.

LPC generally over time (with normal and special dividends) give back almost 
100% of earnings as dividends. Average yield has been 8.5% odd over the last 
three years (say div of 14 cents against average shareprice of 165).

What impact the loss of business - lower earnings implies lower dividend 
which implies lower share price if past yield is maintained.

On the FIG board you sort of suggested more than 50% drop in earnings. Lets 
go for a 25% drop and a 8.5% yield being maintained. This implies a LPC 
shareprice of 141.

Looks like the market expects a drop in earnings of about this much. Sort of 
confirms that there is not much downside from here.

Of course if LPC recover the situation and maintain profits at past levels 
you have bought well - even if assisted by a bit of informal TA



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