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From: | "tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz> |
Date: | Sun, 6 Oct 2002 22:02:23 +0000 |
Hi Hoop and Greg, My interest in this quartet is holding shares in CAH. My objective is long term to have a share in an industry where theoretically NZ has a strong competitive advantage, and in the medium term benefit from the undervaluation of the whole forestry industry. I had a few FFS a few years back, but sold out at 90c preferring to concentrate on what I saw as the stronger company - CAH. I have to admit holding CAH has been disappointing over the timeframe since, but not nearly as disappointing as if I had held onto FFS as well! I note that CAH is the only one of this quartet of companies paying a dividend, if you discount the token effort by GPG. I think the fact that both the FFS and CAH share price are meandering downwards has more to do with paper product prices and general market weakness rather than company specific factors. I can't see why it is necessary to have control of CAH if they agree with what you are doing. I think the reason that GPG have jumped aboard the FFS and Rubicon ships is that management of those companies do not agree with what GPG is trying to do. I think GPG is looking at the long term export potential of having a more integrated wood industry. Because this is an export matter, I'm picking that commerce commission approval is very much a side issue. I can't see International Paper making a full bid for CAH, as they have had many years to do so at even more favourable terms than today. I also can't see the US banks jumping over themselves to lend International Paper the money to do it. SNOOPY --------------------------------- Message sent by Snoopy e-mail tennyson@caverock.net.nz on Pegasus Mail version 2.55 ---------------------------------- "Sometimes to see the wood from the trees, you have to cut down all the trees." ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/
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