Forum Archive Index - October 2002

["Maria Smith" <smith@ps.gen.nz>]

>From what I have been able to read over the last week or two our forestry
companies are going to have a very different ownership structure in say 6
months from now.

The way I see the situation is as follows

1. GPG have made a partial takeover offer for a majority shareholding in RUB
at 75c against a current market price of 72c. This is doomed to failure as
most holders would prefer to hold onto their shares so that they can benefit
from any restructuring GPG make.The GPG directors are astute so is this a
smokescreen for a bigger prise.

2.  Talks have been held with the recievers of the CNIP. You dont hold these
talks unless you have an overall plan. GPG cannot afford to purchase the
forest on its own (they wouldnt want to even if they could afford it)

3.  CAH have been mentioned in the papers as part of the rationalising of
the forests.

4.  The shareholding of FFS &  RUB was widespread before GPG obtained their
20% until it was discovered that Perry also had a large shareholding in RUB.
Has this upset the applecart in view of the acrimonious court proceedings
and GPG having frozen Perrys ability to dispose of their shares.

5.  The share price of FFS & CAH has been meandering downwards indicating
that no one including GPG is building a stake. Does this mean that my
ramblings above are just ramblings.

6.  For CAH to be involved this would require the approval of its majority
shareholder International Paper.

7.  If I was the driving force behind these discussions what would be my
objectives.

Conclusions.

1.  I would want to make the maximum amount of money for the least input and
the least risk.

2.  I would need to obtain control of all of the companies. A shareholding
of 30-35% of RUB would give me control of both RUB and FFS.

3.  I would need to enter into an understanding with International Paper to
purchase their shareholding to give me control of CAH.

4.  With the above organised I would be able to orchestrate a merger between
the three forestry companies to create a huge monopoly which would purchase
the CNIP.(After allowing for a few concessions to the Commerce Commission)

5.  After the above has been achieved I would need to make my money because
at this stage I havent got anything for my effort.

6.  I would need to find someone willing to buy my huge shareholding in the
merged giant at a suitably huge premium so I can double my money.

7.  I wonder if some there is an organisation which might be interested in
such a shareholding.  Perhaps a foreign goverment agency might be interested
in a second attempt.

8.  Maybe I am still just rambling.

Greg




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