Forum Archive Index - July 2002

["Richard Hooper" <hoop@ihug.co.nz>]

Hi Winner , Lindley

I am wearey of the fact that they are along way a way from making a decent profit  based on total asset ....but this is factored in the shareprice....so if they do make a profit  that is better than interest earned from money in the bank ($320m)....the shareprice would rise wouldn't it ?...

I am an investor and I will watch my stocks carefully ...any signs of trouble and I am outa there....at the moment CAH seems to be going in the right direction.

Good Debate

Hoop

 

----- Original Message -----

From: winner69 .

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 9:32 PM

Subject: [sharechat] CAH

Good responses Hoop and Snoopy but you have not convinced me.

 

In spite of your ravings about where CAH might be heading wouldn't you be worried about what Liddel was quoted as saying in the NBR today. Things like cautious about the outlook for the second half and the second half would be about consolidating the gains of the first half rather than continuing the trend.

 

That suggests about $150M at most for the year (remember they don't pay tax ). Still a long way to go to get your $450M Hoop.

 

Even $150 is still a huge destruction of value - isn't it driven from $6.4 billion of capital. (Snoopy - I got the cost of capital from Pricewaterhousecoopers)

 

One other thing that puzzles me is that expenses (not including interest/goodwill/depreciation) aren't coming down - $402M this year v's $400M last year for the six months to June.

 

Agree with both of you that we should be looking at the future but I can't really see where the 'gap' between where they are now and where they should be is going to come from.

 

No doubt we (along with JB Were and others no doubt) agree to disagree.

 

Good hearing from you anyway and glad that you have made something from CAH over the last year. Well done 

 

 

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