Forum Archive Index - June 2002

["Gordon King" <gordon.k@xtra.co.nz>]

Got to remember that multiples reflect investor sentiment regarding growth opportunities in the stock.  Would you pay $17 for a dollars worth of earnings each year?  Of course not, you are expecting the future dividend stream to increase.

 

What has more chance of earnings growth.  Sydney or Auckland, which really means Australia or New Zealand.  I know what I'd buy.

 

Gordon    

----- Original Message -----

From: winner69 .

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Tuesday, June 25, 2002 8:17 PM

Subject: [sharechat] AIA - based on Sydney sale AIA worth $6.16

So Macquarie is paying A$5.396 billion for Sydney Airport - and a bit extra for the Ansett terminal.

This is 17 times this years expected EBITDA.this year. Compared to recent sales of Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth at multiplies of 14, 17 and 19 respectively.

Same multiple as this Sydney sale values Auckland (AIA) at sbout NZ$2.6 billion - this is $6.16 a share.

Even at 14 times EBITDA (what was paid for Melbourne) the value is $5.10 a share

Makes todays price look a bargain - in spite of some uncertainity over the council sale of their shares

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