Forum Archive Index - June 2002

["Nick Kearney" <nickk@quicksilver.net.nz>]

Interesting reading folks.......

Food for thought at least.  

Nk

----- Original Message ----- 
From: <jeff@lowrisk.com>
To: <nickk@quicksilver.net.nz>
Sent: Saturday, June 01, 2002 2:15 AM
Subject: Walker Market Letter 05/31/02


> 
> ...............................................
> 
>       W a l k e r   M a r k e t   L e t t e r
> 
>                 May 30th, 2002
> 
>              http://www.LowRisk.com
> 
> 
> ...............................................
> 
> 
> Our Signal Strength has dropped from 9 to 8. This change was
> not enough to create any changes in our strategies or
> models.
> 
> I have enclosed a market commentary below.
> 
> 
> 
>       // -- MODEL UPDATE -- //
> 
> Lowrisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 8 (on a scale
> of 0-20, with 20 being the most bullish)
> 
> **********
> 
> Disaster Avoidance Strategy - 100% stocks as of 12/06/00
> Graduated Strategy - 25% stocks, 75% money markets as of 10/19/2001
> Timing Strategy - 100% money markets as of 06/11/2001
> SuperBear Strategy - 100% money markets as of 12/14/98
> 
> **********
> 
> 
> Right now, there is just not a lot to like about the stock
> market.
> 
> After almost five months, 2002 is shaping up to be no better
> than 2000 and 2001. For the year, the SP500 is down 7.0%,
> the Dow is down 1.0%, and the Nasdaq composite is down
> 16.7%.
> 
> Remember the enthusiasm back in January, when we kept
> hearing that the market never goes down for three years in a
> row? Well, this year isn't over by any means, and the market
> could certainly still turn in a positive performance for the
> year, but we sure aren't hearing much of that rosy optimism
> these days.
> 
> Now we are hearing talk on the financial stations of the
> market looking "ugly", and we are reading comparisons to the
> bear market in Japan and to the 1929 Crash.
> 
> 
>    ( Of course, we have been making those
>      comparisons for two years in this newsletter
>      and on our web site. I just updated the
>      charts comparing the current Nasdaq Bear
>      Market to the 1929 Crash. You can see them
>      at: http://lowrisk.com/nasdaq-1929.htm )
> 
> 
> The point of course, is that the popular view of the market
> for the last three years has been repeatedly careening from
> absolute euphoria to doom and gloom. And it is pretty much a
> sure thing that when you hear a consensus on one side or the
> other of that emotional barometer, that consensus is almost
> surely wrong.
> 
> Of course, this is nothing new...the market has always been
> a battleground between fear and greed. You have certainly
> heard that tired cliche before. However, in this age of
> instant communication, the swings in those emotions seem to
> come faster.
> 
> There have been some good lessons in this bear market. First
> and foremost is that the market can go further than just
> about everyone expects. In early 2000, few people would have
> thought it possible that the Nasdaq could go through a 1929
> type of crash that would last for years. Well, here we are,
> more than 24 months after the top and the bear market grinds
> on. And as far as 1929 is concerned, go take a look at those
> charts: http://lowrisk.com/nasdaq-1929.htm .
> 
> Another great lesson was that even in a terrible bear
> market, there are usually segments of the market that are
> doing well. This tendency is what our mutual fund picks
> capitalize on. It is pretty ironic that I picked January 1st
> of 2000, just a few months before *THE* top in the market,
> to launch the Walker MarketEdge mutual fund picks...how is
> THAT for timing?
> 
> But even fighting a truly historic bear market (and the
> worst bear market in Nasdaq history), those picks have done
> very well. After 2000 and 2001, the No Load mutual fund
> picks were up more than 20%. And they are up an additional
> 9% so far in 2002. Not bad for a strategy that is always
> invested and does not use *ANY* timing.
> 
> 
>    ( you can get those mutual fund picks if
>      you upgrade your subscription to the
>      Walker MarketEdge. Upgrading is quick
>      and easy on our secure server:
>      https://www.lowrisk.com/wme-secure.htm )
> 
> 
> Wow, I really got off on a tangent there...sorry about that,
> I am really not trying to brag here. I just want to point
> out that there has been some bright spots in the market in
> the last two years, even if you haven't been hearing about
> them on CNBC. When it comes to the market, it pays to think
> for yourself and be skeptical of conventional wisdom.
> 
> OK, back to the current market. Like I said at the top, it
> is looking very ugly. Every rally attempt is met with lots
> of sellers. Sooner or later, one of these rally attempts
> will stick, and the market will rally for more than a couple
> of days. If you have been reading this newsletter for very
> long, you know the standard warning I give...bear market
> rallies always look very convincing. That is their very
> nature. 
> 
> Be careful, don't get sucked in by the first little rally.
> When the new bull market starts, there will be time to get
> onboard. Right now is the time for caution. 
> 
> If you want to get notified when our models *do* move back
> into the market, you need to upgrade to our Walker
> MarketEdge. That way you will get an immediate FLASH UPDATE
> when there are any changes in our models. You can upgrade by
> going to this link:
> 
>     > > https://www.lowrisk.com/wme-secure.htm  < <
> 
> 
> 
> Good luck,
> Jeff Walker
> 
> 
> Copyright (c) 2002 by Jeff Walker, Bayfield, CO. This
> newsletter may be forwarded, as long as you do so in its
> entirety.
> 
> Disclaimer:
> The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past
> performance does not guarantee future performance. The
> foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
> purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
> sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
> research and data believed reliable, but there is no
> guarantee that future results will be profitable.
> 
> 
> ===========================
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> 
> ---
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