Forum Archive Index - May 2002

["Steven Tong" <soarer2@xtra.co.nz>]

At last some people on this site have jumped off the fence and said what
they really think, its sure took some provacation from  Nick Kearney.

Sold the last of my families gold stocks today   LHG @ 1.58 on the open and
AOR on Tuesday at $ 4.47.

LHG    24.2 %    return  in 40 odd days
AOR   40.1%     return  in  20 odd days

These trades stood out like dogs balls, hope some of you got in on the
action. Some people back words with their wallet, others don't.

Will look to reenter LHG if gold has a correction downward before it resumes
its march North, if not so be it.


Gold - who cares I 've made my money.





----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 6:13 AM
Subject: Re: Re: [sharechat] I have no gold shares! Alternative Strategy


> Hi Mr Nua,
>
>
>
> >
> >
> >The fact that many posters here dismiss some of the Gold postings as
> >"Gold nutters", disguises the fact that there have been (and may
> >continue to be) some good gains to be made in Gold stocks. The
> >graphs below show the Spot gold price from 1979 and a close up of
> >the current price. Not too sexy up until a few months ago. But few
> >can deny that there has been a definite change in trend.
> >
> >The situation reminds me of the internet stock explosion. Many
> >posters using fundamental analysis were glad to see the end of the
> >dot boom. Comments like "Warren didn't invest in it because he
> >didn't understand it" and "Punters investing on air" hid the fact
> >that there were 100's of %s to be made if you had your exit
> >criterea in place.
> >
> >
>
>
>
> I think that is a fair summary of the situation, albeit I would say
> the gold punters of today are perhaps more savvy than the internet
> punters of a couple of years back.   The gold punters at least
> realise there is a limit that is set somewhere below the sky ;-).
>
> I think the main point that gold investors need to bring to mind is
> that I haven't seen a discounted cash flow analysis based on the
> demand for gold *products* that justifies a price of $US800 an ounce.
>
> If gold does reach that price, I think it will be because of a
> speculative bubble of fear, manifesting itself as a greed for gold
> irrational run up.  The key point if playing with gold, as Mr Nua
> empahsises, is to have an exit strategy in place.  I'd say this is a
> strong case for using T/A.
>
> If I was investing in gold, I would certainly go for Gold shares,
> rather than the metal, as at least the shares pay a dividend.   So I
> don't regard those of you who invest in gold shares as 'nutters' at
> all  (that word may have appeared in my last post, but it was a
> quote from someone else).   Just as long as gold share investors
> realise they have the same potential to get hurt as those who piled
> into the tech boom without an exit strategy, I regard my point as
> being made.
>
> Myself, I have limited time to devote to investment matters.  I
> can't be hovering over a screen every day, and I have a only very
> small exposure only to the US market.   So rather than follow gold I
> intend to look around a bit on the US market for shares that are sold
> down in distress, much like 'Coke' was twelve or so years back.  I've
> no doubt that Warren will be having a good look around too.  But it's
> a big market over there so I think there will be enough shares for
> both of us ;-).
>
>
>
> >
> >
> > Posters should understand that simply because your strategy is
> > different to others, their strategy (or yours) is not necessarily
> > wrong. Anyone who is making money on gold stocks right now - Good on
> > you. Everyone who is making money from regular dividends - Good on
> > you too.
> >
> >
>
>
>
> Fair enough.  There's room for everyone in the 'sharechat' chatroom.
> It just seemed that lately the gold faction had crowded everyone else
> out over the last few days.
>
> SNOOPY
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------
> Message sent by Snoopy
> e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
> on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
> ----------------------------------
> "Dogs have big tongues, so you can bet they don't
> bite them by accident"
>
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>



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