Forum Archive Index - May 2002

["Lindley Smith" <lindleysmith@bigfoot.com>]

Regarding the UK annuities situation, here's a bit of info on how it works over here (from what I know).

 

In the UK at retirement (I'll leave that undefined) individuals must buy an annuity with some/most of their pension. >From what I see in the adverts I am guessing that some/most people buy their annuity from the pension provider, and that they don't get a good deal (surprise surprise). There are already 3rd party annuity providers, so the question is, will Challenger do any better than anyone else at attracting customers? Can they really deliver a better return than anyone else? Property may be giving a better return at present than shares, will it last? Will they end up paying to much to get the customers? Will they end up paying too much for the buildings they intend to buy? And I wonder if the FSA (the regulator) may have some issues with their share option/fees arrangments.

 

Let me know the results in 5 yrs time.

 

Disclosure: I don't trust insurance companies

 

----- Original Message -----

From: G Stolwyk

To: sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Saturday, May 25, 2002 2:45 AM

Subject: Re: [sharechat] Challenger International

Let us expand previous projections.

Profit to June 30, 2001: $ 154 mill.
And to 31 Dec 2001: $109 mill.
Questions:

1. How will they perform in the UK?
Answ. CLI has been there for a while now and their latest permit should enable them to make rapid inroads in the Super industry.

They ought to do well, I think as the UK firms don't treat the Supers too well and are still saddled with financial problems dating from the Dotcom and biotech fallouts. This limits the payouts.

CLI is in property only and that would be an advantage. Mostly let to large secure tenants and long leases.

2. The takeover of FB and consolidation.
This was the major question. There have been no negative reports sofar and the first half's profit was a very satisfactory $109 mill.

This is encouraging as CLI must have absorbed some additional costs in the UK as well as take-over costs in Australia.

3. Profit to 30 June 2002?
They report that they are performing above budget. I would put it @ $200 mill.(Range: $195 mill.-$215 mill) Say 285 mill. shares or E/S: 70 cents. Price $ 3.05 and P/E: 4.4.

The fee component is now building up and the dividend is to be paid from that.

4. Prospects?
I would expect them to have bedded in the FB takeover properly by Dec 31, this year.
Their UK operations would be quite important and -if everything goes well- will be much larger than those of Australia.

Costs incurred establishing these two operations will have disappeared before Dec. 31, 2002.

Profit to June 30, 2003 will be somewhat difficult to judge as much depends on the success and speed of transactions in the UK.

I was thinking of $270 mill. Shares say: 290 mill. E/S: 93 cents and P/E of 3.3

How low can you go! In less than three years you will have the shares for virtually nothing!: One way of putting it.

Profit could be anywhere between $270 mill. and $310 mill. I believe.

I am comfortable with the minimum numbers quoted. Any upward revision depends on the profit up to June 30, 2002.
At that time, this will be done. Sofar, CLI has beaten my forecasts.

Those are my opinions,

Dimebag, your comments, please!

Gerry
Disclaimer: Outcomes may be different than envisaged. Readers are not asked to buy, hold or sell CLI shares. To do so will be at their own risk.