Forum Archive Index - May 2002

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi winner69,
 
>
>
> We agree then Snoopy. Good.
> 
> 

Very sure of yourself Winner69 aren't you!  
What I wrote was:

>
>
>Your position is certainly consistant Winner69.   If you
>believe that the sprirt of Baycorp is now dead, then you
>are correct to disregard any Baycorp charts.
>
>

I would agree with you *if* it was purely Australians now driving the 
BCA share.  But I am far from certain of this.  It would be 
interesting to look at the share register now and see the proportion 
of Australian vs New Zealand shareholders.

I wouldn't mind betting that some of those selling out are New 
Zealand funds basically selling to meet the demands of investors 
pulling money out of the market.   Also the fact that BCA is no 
longer strictly a New Zealand share, may require some NZ market fund 
managers to sell it down heavily regardless.  In this case, the idea 
of support levels is wasted as these funds will keep selling until 
they have the cash in hand to pay their investors out or 
alternatively exit their position- whatever the price!  I presume the 
weighting of Baycorp has changed in many index tracking funds as 
well, now that so much of BCA is overseas owned.  Someone please 
challenge me if that isn't correct!  But I think that is another 
possible reason for the selling.  Nevertheless the Baycorp price rose 
so steeply in recent years that even many of those selling out 
at today's prices will still be sitting on a nice profit.

So perhaps there are some long term New Zealand based position 
holders taking profits.  Here indeed it might be the "Baycorp-Baycorp 
Advantage" chart that is of more use.  Of course it would be 
necessary to scale the Baycorp bit of the chart back by a factor of 
1.56 (being the number of BCA shares issued to ex-Baycorp 
shareholders) to get a meaningful comparison. Now that would be an 
interesting exercise!

SNOOPY




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