Forum Archive Index - May 2002

["andrew cottingham" <arco@adinfinitum.co.nz>]

Re TWR.

Yesterdays post on Sharetrader.

$ 4.88 is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement line which looks as it may hold as support together with previous former areas of support/resistance. The past 4 days patterns are also very interesting from a charting perspective. Days 26/29/30 April make a pattern similar to '3 Stars in the South'. I believe the formation has additional potency because of yesterdays white candle (which is normally black in this pattern). The central candle would also normally have a small black top, but in my opinion the Harami again adds more potency by creating an Harami Cross type twin formation. Add all this today’s candle forming a Tweezer Bottom with the candle of the 26th and I consider this could turn out be a very bullish reversal pattern. Confirmation is of a reversal is usually required with the 3 Stars pattern, but taking into consideration the other candle factors it all seems very positive at least in the short term.

Trying to pick the bottom in any stock is difficult and whilst TWR is looking exceedingly good on candle patterns, very few of the standard indicators have turned up yet. Certainly tomorrows trading will give a better idea of the way forward, and if buying I would personally wait for a confirmed move North off this possible support area. (If considering selling the same rule applies). An important point I should mention is regarding the stock being in a definite downtrend channel since January 02. There is a possibility, as I said, that the stock may go North again shortly, but it should be remembered it could be hampered by the upper line of the downtrend channel, and may then turn back down to the lower line once again. Only when this upper line is breached positively can we say TWR is out of trouble.

02.05.02. Todays open started off higher at $4.94, but we need to see what the close is tonight and re-evaluate at that point.

TWR9.gif

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