Forum Archive Index - April 2002

["andrew cottingham" <arco@adinfinitum.co.nz>]

I would agree with Phaedrus regarding Gerry's picks. Gerry puts in
tremendous effort and overall he comes up with the goods.

IMO the turning points to watch for if considering a purchase of AUO in the
near future are trendline 1 (Blue) and trendline 2 (green dotted).
I would expect AUO to rebound off one of these in the near future, and head
North taking it initially to +/-85/90c.
56c has held recently as Darvas Box base (red rectangle) and if that should
fail 53c is the old resistance and should hold as support - (a move below
would not be favourable). I would also consider a close above 70c to be very
bullish.
Andrew

----- Original Message -----
From: Phaedrus <Phaedrus@techemail.com>
To: <Sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 11:59 AM
Subject: [sharechat] AUO Chart


> The chart of Gerry's latest pick is at an interesting stage. This stock
has been in a strong primary uptrend for over six months. It is currently in
a secondary downtrend. Such downtrends can present good buying oportunities.
>  Dr Alexander Elder uses an interesting technique to time entering stocks
in an uptrend like this. He suggests drawing a moving average, of such a
period that about 95% of the price action is above it, and buying or adding
to positions when price penetrates this moving average from below. I chose a
50 day period, plotted in light blue. Note how good any previous entries by
this method would have been.
>  The upper panel is a smoothed momentum oscillator. Note the close
correlation between the two sets of signals.
>  I have also plotted secondary downtrend trendlines in red. These give a
buy signal when price action breaks above them. Again, note the very high
level of agreement between all these quite dissimilar techniques.
>  Right now, every one of these indicators is very close to a buy signal.
>  Use of a simple 100 day moving average would have provided a good entry
into this stock, and would also provide a simple exit signal. Anyone fearing
that such a strategy would bind them to their computer screens should
perhaps call it a 20 week average, and check it once a week.
>  I have a lot of respect for Gerry and his methods. His featured stocks
have shown outstanding results. It saddens me to see the amount of stick he
is dealt if he gets one "wrong". Will I be buying this one? Yes. When will I
be buying it? When the short-term indicators say so. When will I be selling
it? When long-term TREND indicators tell me that the uptrend is over. When
will that be? I have no idea.
>
>             Phaedrus.
>
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AUO2.gif

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