Forum Archive Index - April 2002

["Nick Kearney" <nickk@quicksilver.net.nz>]

Team

For those that don't get this I have forwarded it on.  It raises some
interesting points.

Regards

Nk

----- Original Message -----
From: <jeff@lowrisk.com>
To: <nickk@quicksilver.net.nz>
Sent: Thursday, April 04, 2002 8:01 PM
Subject: Walker Market Letter 04/04/02


>
>
> ...............................................
>
>        W a l k e r   M a r k e t   L e t t e r
>
>                April 4th, 2002
>
>               http://www.LowRisk.com
>
>
> ...............................................
>
>
> In the last couple of days we reached the 60,000 subscriber
> mark. That is a long way from our first newsletter in 1996
> that went out to 19 people. And the most amazing thing is
> that all that growth came without any advertising...it was
> mostly from "word of mouth", and our subscribers passing
> along this newsletter to their friends.
>
> One last reminder...I am going to be speaking at the
> upcoming NetPreneur Conference. If you have an Internet
> business, or you are thinking about starting one, this
> conference will give you a huge jump start. The conference
> is going to be May 17th and 18th in Denver, and I would love
> to see you there. There are lots more details at this web
> site:
>
> http://netpreneurconference.com/
>
>
>
>
>        // -- MODEL UPDATE -- //
>
> Lowrisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 9 (on a scale
> of 0-20, with 20 being the most bullish)
>
> **********
>
> Disaster Avoidance Strategy - 100% stocks as of 12/06/00
> Graduated Strategy - 25% stocks, 75% money markets as of 10/19/2001
> Timing Strategy - 100% money markets as of 06/11/2001
> SuperBear Strategy - 100% money markets as of 12/14/98
>
> **********
>
>
> In our last issue on March 18th, I was short term bearish
> and longer term "hopeful". Since then the market has sold off.
> The Nasdaq composite is down 5.0%, while the SP500 and Dow
> are both down approximately 3.5%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100
> has been hit harder, losing 7.5%. And on Wednesday the
> market closed at its lowest levels since late February.
>
> OK, let's step back and look at the bigger picture. Last
> year, after a rally in May and June, the bear market resumed
> and the various indexes sold off sharply. This selling
> culminated in September, with a panic like bottom on
> September 21st.
>
> That bottom was followed by a very strong rally, and the
> market ran higher until early January. In early January the
> Nasdaq composite, SP500 and Dow all made new rally highs.
> Since those highs, the market has struggled and churned
> sideways.
>
> Actually, that last paragraph oversimplified things
> somewhat. In reality, we have had a mixed market since
> January. The SP500 has moved sideways, repeatedly bouncing
> up against resistance in the 1175-1180 area and then turning
> down, while the Dow actually went on to make a new rally
> high in early to mid March. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has been
> developing a pretty well defined downtrend since January.
>
> This mixed performance is evident in the year to date
> performance numbers, as the Dow is down 0.6%, the SP500 is
> down 4.0%, and the Nasdaq composite has lost 13.4%.
>
> All this churning in the market (and the mixed performance
> of the various indexes) has been frustrating for investors.
> It has also been frustrating for newsletter writers...it is
> hard to keep writing about a market that does nothing but
> churn sideways.
>
> But, as I have been pointing out for months, the market
> never moves in just one direction. The rally off the
> September lows was very dramatic...and it was clearly not
> sustainable. The market had to undergo some type of
> correction...and this churning, mixed market HAS been
> correcting.
>
> So far, the pullback has been well contained. However, on
> Wednesday all of the indexes broke down through some
> important resistance zones...so the next week or so will be
> important, because a break of support implies more weakness.
> And although the market might get a very short term bounce
> in the next day or so, it looks like the path of least
> resistance is still down. And with that outlook I am
> comfortable with most of our models remaining in the safety
> of money markets.
>
> HOWEVER, my opinion is unchanged from our last issue. Even
> though I am short term bearish, I am bigger picture hopeful.
>
> For the last couple of years, as the market has struggled
> through one of the worst bear markets in history, our models
> have kept our readers out of harm's way...safely in money
> markets. That is a good thing, because bear markets are
> painful. But they also set up great opportunity, because it
> is out of bear markets that great bull markets arise. Don't
> miss our model's "all clear" buy signal when it comes...if
> you upgrade your subscription to the Walker MarketEdge, you
> will get an immediate Flash Update when we get our next buy
> signal. You will also get our monthly Mutual Fund picks that
> have returned well over 20% in the last two years. You can
> upgrade now at:
>
>       > > https://www.lowrisk.com/wme-secure.htm  < <
>
>
>
> Good luck,
> Jeff Walker
>
>
> Copyright (c) 2002 by Jeff Walker, Bayfield, CO. This
> newsletter may be forwarded, as long as you do so in its
> entirety.
>
> Disclaimer:
> The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past
> performance does not guarantee future performance. The
> foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
> purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
> sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
> research and data believed reliable, but there is no
> guarantee that future results will be profitable.
>
>
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